Gold peaks, Bitcoin must match by 2026? A new asset rotation logic from an institutional report

【CryptoWorld】Recently, I came across a 2026 outlook from mainstream investment institutions, and their views on asset allocation are quite interesting. Let’s discuss them.

Gold is Overvalued, Be Cautious

In simple terms, gold has now risen to an unreasonable level. The data comparison is quite straightforward: the market value of gold relative to US M2 has reached an extreme level, surpassing the peak of the late 1970s hyperinflation period, and only more exaggerated during the Great Depression of the 1930s (though back then, gold prices were fixed, and currency was drastically shrinking, so the situation was completely different). The problem is, there’s no basis for hyperinflation or monetary tightening now; this recent surge in gold is mainly driven by psychological expectations, representing a typical overvaluation.

The future logic is also clear: the deflationary effects brought by AI + the resurgence of the US dollar will continue to put downward pressure on gold prices. The institutional view is that gold’s top should be near, and subsequent capital may start to withdraw.

Why Bitcoin Deserves Focus in 2026

This report distinctly separates the positioning of gold and Bitcoin, which is quite interesting. Gold is seen as a “store of wealth,” while Bitcoin is defined as an independent tool for “creating wealth.”

Several key points are worth noting:

Low Correlation, Portfolio Optimization Tool — Bitcoin’s correlation with bonds, gold, real estate, and the S&P 500 is extremely low. This means adding Bitcoin to a portfolio can effectively reduce overall risk and improve the risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ratio). Data speaks louder than any explanation.

Supply Design Outperforms Gold — Bitcoin’s issuance decreases algorithmically, with an approximate growth rate of 0.82% in 2026, further dropping to 0.41%. Gold? Its production depends entirely on market demand, with no total supply cap. From a scarcity perspective, Bitcoin’s design is more robust.

Not a Tech Stock Shadow, an Independent Asset — This is very important. Many still equate Bitcoin with tech stocks, but institutions have long classified it as an independent asset class. Its value logic and volatility drivers are completely different.

Capital Flows in 2026 Are Critical — Once gold peaks, where will the capital withdrawn from gold go? In a deflationary + strong dollar environment, low-correlation independent assets become natural recipients. Coupled with the ongoing explosion of AI innovation, Bitcoin could see a significant influx of capital in 2026.

Dollar Reversal Is the Core Logic

The new policy framework: tax cuts, deregulation, encouragement of innovation and energy — simply put, “Reaganomics on steroids.” This combination is highly attractive to global capital. Historically, during Reagan’s era in the 1980s, the dollar strengthened and gold was suppressed. The current logic resonates strongly with that history. A strong dollar means: continued pressure on gold, but the global allocation value of Bitcoin rises (because in a strong dollar environment, non-US assets need alternatives).

AI Profit Explosion Absorbs Overvaluation, Risk Assets Are Not as Dangerous as Imagined

Here’s a counterintuitive point: the current high valuations in the market implicitly assume declining inflation or even deflation. Meanwhile, AI-driven corporate earnings growth might exceed expectations — companies doubling profits annually, even with P/E ratios of 50-100, can have their valuations justified from a growth perspective. In other words, high-valuation tech stocks now may not be overextending into the future but are actually digesting future growth.

Summary of Investment Strategy

1. Reduce holdings of gold — to avoid risks of a top and subsequent correction; lock in gains where possible.

2. Hold Bitcoin as a core asset — treat it as an independent asset, not just a risk asset or a substitute for tech stocks. 2026 is a key window, and early movers among institutions are already taking action.

3. Focus on AI themes — whether driven by profit or deflationary effects, AI remains central. High-growth tech companies deserve close attention.

4. Prioritize USD assets — a strong dollar cycle enhances the value of US innovation assets, which is a consensus among institutions.

Of course, this is just one institution’s perspective, and markets are always unpredictable. But the internal consistency of this logic is quite strong — a complete closed loop formed by macro trends, capital flows, and asset characteristics. How to allocate in 2026 is worth careful consideration.