On January 17th, the United States released a shocking tariff list—imposing a 10% tariff on eight European countries including Denmark, Germany, France, and the UK, and issuing a "final ultimatum": if an agreement satisfying US conditions is not reached by June 1st, the tariff rate will be directly increased to 25%.

This is far more than just another round of trade friction. Looking at the bigger picture, when you compare the US military operation in Venezuela on January 3rd with the current tariff war over Greenland, you will see that Washington is executing the largest and most naked resource scramble since the end of the Cold War. On the surface, it’s about "democracy" and "island sovereignty," but at its core, it targets the three physical foundations supporting global hegemony for the next 50 years—heavy crude oil, rare earth resources, and polar shipping hubs.

**EU's "$8 Trillion" Countermeasure**

In the face of cascading tariff threats, the EU’s response has been surprisingly tough. France has urged member states to activate the "Counter-Coercion Mechanism," a financial defense toolkit that includes restrictions on capital flows and asset freezes.

Even more concerning for Wall Street is the latest report from Deutsche Bank’s foreign exchange research department: European entities hold a total of up to $8 trillion in US bonds and stocks. This figure is significant—it represents the liquidity backbone of the US financial system and is also a lethal weapon Europe can use to make US stocks "bleed" instantly.

Once the EU is forced to activate the "capital weaponization" counterattack, US stocks will face triple shocks. First, European divestment from US bonds will cause yields to spike uncontrollably, directly bursting the high valuation bubble of the Nasdaq tech stocks, leading to a collective increase in discount rates for tech giants. Second, as the dollar ceases to be a safe haven in the eyes of allies, dollar depreciation will severely damage the overseas profits of US multinational corporations, triggering a large-scale capital flight. Finally, the implied "Western alliance stability premium" embedded in the S&P 500 will be broken, causing safe-haven funds to flood into physical assets like Bitcoin and gold.

Kiplinger Macro’s chief economist pointed out that although the direct damage of tariffs to GDP is only between 0.1% and 0.3%, this irreversible political credit rupture will cast a long shadow of high volatility over US stocks in the long term.

**Venezuela’s Heavy Oil Competition**

The military action on January 3rd was essentially an "occupational reconstruction." On the surface, it appears to be regime change, but the underlying logic is much deeper.

Although the US has become a major global oil producer, its core refining facilities—large refineries in Texas and Louisiana—are precisely tailored for Venezuela’s "heavy, high-sulfur" crude oil. Losing access to this special type of crude would cause a cliff-like decline in US refinery efficiency, with domestic gasoline and jet fuel costs skyrocketing. Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves, exceeding 300 billion barrels.

Deeper threats come from geopolitical dimensions. Maduro’s regime has accepted oil settlements in RMB, euros, and even rubles—directly challenging US dollar hegemony. Russia has provided $14.5 billion in military equipment (including air defense systems), and China is deeply involved economically through debt holdings. The real purpose of the US move is simple: to reassert control over the Americas "backyard" and restore monopoly influence over the region, preventing other major powers from infiltrating.

**Greenland: The Rare Earth Chessboard in the AI Era**

If Venezuela addresses energy issues, Greenland targets computing power and defense.

Militarily, Greenland is the shortest flight path for US and Russian intercontinental missiles. The Thule Space Base on the island not only manages missile warning and space surveillance but is also a critical node in the US global missile defense system. As Arctic ice melts, the "Northwest Passage" will become a reality, shortening Eurasian routes by 40%—whoever controls Greenland controls the future global shipping lifeline.

On the technological front, Greenland’s southern Tanbrssz mineral deposits contain top-tier rare earth reserves, with heavy rare earths accounting for up to 27%. Since China implemented export controls on heavy rare earths in 2025, this has become the only alternative lifeline for Nasdaq tech giants, missile guidance systems, and electric vehicle motors.

The US-driven "Red, White, and Blue Act" essentially aims to establish a fully de-Easternized resource supply chain. As Trump put it, it’s for "the security and survival of the world," but in reality, it locks in US dominance over AI and modern warfare resources.

**Two Future Paths**

The series of aggressive actions at the start of 2026 marks a paradigm shift in global geopolitics: resources are no longer just commodities but tools for executing national will. By monopolizing oil, rare earths, and shipping routes, the US seeks to forcefully lock in its advantage amid an uncertain future.

This "occupational reconstruction" versus the EU’s "capital weaponization" will become the main theme of US stock market volatility in 2026. For investors, the most valuable assets may no longer be digital assets in the cloud but the material foundations guarded by aircraft carrier fleets beneath permafrost.

The June 1st tariff deadline is worth close attention—it could be a watershed for long-term US bond yields and the overall trend of US stocks.