#比特币周期规律 Recently, I came across VanEck's analysis, and their outlook for Bitcoin in 2026 really caught my eye. In previous cycles, BTC could drop as much as 80%, but this time the market has already digested a 35% decline. From a volatility perspective, the potential further downside may be reduced to around 40%. The underlying logic is quite interesting—Bitcoin's four-year cycle pattern is still at play. Looking at the high point in October 2025, 2026 seems more like a year of consolidation rather than a repeat of a sharp rise or fall.

For me, this is not bad news. On the contrary, a consolidation year is often the best window for building positions. The market has less of that excessive speculative frenzy, and although on-chain activity is still recovering, signs of improvement are already emerging. This is the perfect time for us to steadily accumulate using a dollar-cost averaging strategy—allocating 1% to 3% of assets in Bitcoin, adding on margin during liquidations, and reducing during market overheating.

This rhythm precisely embodies the spirit of Web3: not blindly following the trend, not being hostage to short-term volatility, but using time and patience to embrace the long-term value of decentralized assets. In 2026, instead of feeling anxious, it’s better to deploy with wisdom.