The Federal Reserve's next FOMC meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, with the interest rate decision to be announced on the 27th. According to Polymarket's market data, the probability of a rate cut is only between 4% and 25%, making a rate cut almost a certainty.

From an official perspective, recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have been quite cautious. Several officials have repeatedly emphasized the need to continue monitoring economic conditions, especially paying close attention to labor market and inflation trends. The latest non-farm payroll data indicates that the U.S. labor market has not shown significant weakening, further reducing expectations of a rate cut in January.

From the crypto community's perspective, the outcome of no rate cut at the end of January is essentially locked in. However, in the short term, cryptocurrency prices are likely to adjust slightly in line with policy expectations. The real focus will be on the subsequent statements from Federal Reserve officials after the decision is announced. Their viewpoints could reignite market expectations for a rate cut in March or even later, which could lead to quite volatile market movements. Traders should be prepared.