From the current market sentiment, Bitcoin and Ethereum are already exhibiting typical bear market characteristics. The discussion of "Is this a bull market?" has long faded, replaced by a general cautious attitude and bearish expectations.

The technical analysis provides clear signals. The levels of $98,000 for Bitcoin and $3,400 for Ethereum are very likely to be the ceiling for this round of rebound, with the probability now exceeding 60%. Based on this judgment, my holding strategy is quite conservative: clearing spot positions and only taking short positions in futures.

The logic behind this is simple—when most people see the $100,000 resistance during the rebound, the market often exhibits two extreme trends: either it cannot break through at all, or once it does, it will far exceed expectations. Currently, the signs lean more towards the former.

The most alarming situation is the plight of altcoins. Most altcoins tend to follow the trend and hit new lows during BTC and ETH corrections, with only a few showing resilience by rebounding to new highs. This is enough to indicate that what altcoins are experiencing is not a correction but a deep recession.

Investors still holding onto altcoins need to seriously reconsider the feasibility of this strategy. The most prudent approach right now is to stay in cash and wait patiently, reserving firepower for key allocations at the end of Q2.