2026-01-20 02:23:34

A recently declassified meeting record from the Federal Reserve in September 2020 reveals a key chapter of policy history that had been sealed for five years.

At the time, the inflation rate was only 1.3%, but Powell led the push for an aggressive interest rate guidance—keeping the benchmark rate near zero. He pledged that unless the labor market achieved full employment and inflation sustained above 2%, there would be no rate hikes. Despite objections from several Fed officials and even two chairs questioning the decision on the spot, it was ultimately approved.

Why was such a decision made? The reason lies in the Fed's recent shift in policy framework, abandoning the traditional preemptive rate hikes to combat inflation. This new framework appeared flexible, but problems soon followed.

What happened next was visible to the market. Starting in 2021, inflation began to rise, reaching over 7% by mid-2022. However, constrained by previous commitments, the Fed delayed rate hikes until March 2022, missing the optimal window to control inflation. Powell later publicly admitted this mistake, stating he would never make such long-term promises again.

Interestingly, the meeting record also shows that not only voting officials were concerned about overcommitment risks, but other members also raised doubts. In the end, everyone chose collective compromise.

What does this delayed truth tell us? It indicates that amid the unique circumstances of the pandemic, there were disagreements within the Fed on policy direction, but ultimately a relatively aggressive stance was adopted. This also explains why the Fed's initial response to inflation was so delayed.

For the crypto market, macro policies are always a key variable. The interest rate policies laid out back then have continued to influence the Fed's attitude toward rate cuts to this day. The question now is whether the release of this record will further alter market expectations for the Fed's future policy pace. In an environment where macro conditions remain uncertain, how should crypto assets be allocated? This is likely a question every market participant is contemplating.

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SpeakWithHatOn

· 16h ago

Powell really took a big gamble back then. It's a bit late now to release the records. --- So the minefield laid five years ago is still being stepped on in the crypto circle. --- It's ridiculous that internal opinions are so divided yet still passed. --- The funniest part is that they only say they regret afterward. Why didn't they listen to the opposing voices at the time? --- It seems that the next interest rate cut will still depend on how this document influences market expectations. --- Collective compromise = collective scapegoating. This routine is all too familiar. --- Why did the response to inflation back then seem so slow? Now I understand. --- Macro policies really have a huge impact on cryptocurrencies. No wonder things have been so chaotic these past two years. --- Powell himself admitted he was wrong, but the damage has already been done. --- Are they releasing these now to shift blame or are they truly reflecting?

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ContractHunter

· 01-20 02:53

I've been wanting to see this document for a long time, and now the truth is finally revealed. Powell really bet wrong that year. In fact, someone saw through it back then, but no one dared to speak up. Looking back now, it's all a joke. This explains why the crypto market experienced such a roller coaster over those two years—it's all damn the Federal Reserve's fault for planting this bomb. The most heartbreaking part is that they knew there was risk but still insisted on collectively taking the blame. Compromise can really be deadly. The easing policy lasted over two years, and we retail investors were already harvested twice. Everyone was happy when they printed money, but when it came to repayment, they started settling scores—that's the Federal Reserve's routine. It took five years to release this, how guilty they must have felt. This document should have been made public long ago. What does it matter now? Bitcoin has already hit the bottom; information asymmetry is so deadly. The entire market cycle was hijacked by this one decision of theirs. Thinking about it, it's really messed up.

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GasFeeVictim

· 01-20 02:53

Speaking of which, Powell's recent moves really messed up the market. The bomb that was planted five years ago is only now exploding—what kind of transparency is this? Promises can really be harmful; even the Federal Reserve has to suffer the consequences. They promised not to come back, but what about next time? It all depends on inflation. Crypto has always been at the mercy of macro policies; I really can't believe it. Instead of waiting for expectations to change, why not stock up on stablecoins now? Wait, could this record trigger a new market panic again? It's been obvious for a while that the Federal Reserve is internally divided; compromise is the most expensive. Given this situation, another round of aggressive policies wouldn't be surprising. So, is it time to go long or short? That's really a question.

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GateUser-a5fa8bd0

· 01-20 02:44

Basically, the inflation that was artificially created back then to save the market can no longer be shaken off. Powell's promise was really stupid, no wonder he later admitted to messing up. Now, the blame from five years ago is still burning, and in the crypto sector, we have no choice but to dance to the tune of macro policies.

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HalfBuddhaMoney

· 01-20 02:39

Basically, Powell bet wrong back then and dragged the entire market down with him. It seems there are some clear-headed people inside the Federal Reserve, but they are being hijacked. The decisions made in 2020 now look like a joke; only after inflation broke 7% did they react. That's why I don't believe a single word of their promises—just verbal checks. If I had known it would turn out like this, why bother in the first place? Now they’re trying to whitewash by releasing records? Too late, buddy.

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PhantomMiner

· 01-20 02:33

Basically, it was a collective act of self-destruction back then. Only now, after decryption, they say, "Oops, we made a mistake." I'm very familiar with this approach; the crypto market often operates this way as well, always reacting after the fact.

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