A while ago, I was chatting with a friend involved in commodities about how silver inventories are approaching historic lows. At first, I didn’t pay much attention, thinking it was just another asset within precious metals, nothing special. But then I looked into some research reports and data, and I realized things might not be that simple.

The inventory levels at the London vaults are unusually low, and major Asian production regions are tightening controls on silver exports. For those who have been in the crypto market, these signals are all too familiar—they indicate a classic liquidity crunch.

Imagine this scenario: once the expectation of rate cuts materializes, global funds start seeking hard assets for safety, but the spot supply in the market can’t keep up with demand, and sellers can’t find enough buyers. By then, the price won’t be a rational discovery of value but a forced, violent surge to settle positions. In crypto terms, this is a typical short squeeze.

Interestingly, the logic from traditional financial institutions this time is almost identical to the squeeze hype in the crypto space—they’re both seizing the opportunity of a liquidity vacuum. Some analysts are calling for target prices of $120 or even $180, which sounds like a pipe dream, but upon reflection, silver’s current characteristics are very similar to those high-volatility small coins in crypto: small market cap, strong industrial demand, no central bank reserves backing it, and once sentiment shifts, volatility skyrockets. In comparison, gold is more like Bitcoin—backed by central banks and much more stable.

The macro backdrop is quite clear now—an easing cycle combined with geopolitical instability, the whole world is scrambling for hard assets. Under this logic, whether it’s on-chain digital assets or underground mined precious metals, they’re essentially betting on the same thing: the reliability of fiat currency credit.

When inventories hit the limit, prices shift from being driven by value to being driven by panic. Instead of guessing the intentions of various institutions, it’s better to trust the supply and demand dynamics themselves.

My straightforward approach is: one part Bitcoin, as a faith asset; the other part silver ETFs as a hedge. But I’m not really bullish on silver itself; I’m more interested in the upcoming wave of physical asset runs. This generation has been messing around with virtual assets for too long—maybe it’s time to take another look at what can truly be held in hand.