The market movement on January 20th reminds me of the nuances of brewing tea.

The first infusion of good tea is too strong; the true flavor is slowly released in the second infusion. Trading is the same.

The initial sharp decline was like a knife—direct, fierce, and bloodless. Now, this frustrating sideways movement seems gentle but actually hides danger. This is the test.

The day before yesterday, a friend anxiously said, "ETH dropped to 3180! It finally stabilized! Isn't this a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy the dip? I'm going all in with full position!" I only replied, "Calm down first."

This is a trap most retail investors can fall into. They mistake "not continuing to fall" for "having stopped falling," and equate "stopping the fall" with "starting to rise." One link in the logical chain after another, and eventually, they just go all in.

Where is the problem?

On the 4-hour chart, there are indeed no new lows. But if you look closely at the 15-minute chart—has the bulls entered? No. What do you see on the screen? Fragmented K-line fluctuations up and down, very much like an ECG with signals almost lost. This isn't active buying; it's—no one wants to move.

The main force has withdrawn the big sell orders, but they never intended to push up. The current market is just them watching retail investors cut each other’s throats. The 3180 level? Basically, it's a "pause point."

If you rush in now, the likely outcome is: it can't rise when it should, drops come suddenly, and even a single spike can force you out. What are the main players doing? Waiting—for a signal. Maybe it's the reaction when the US stock market opens, or perhaps a trapped retail investor can't hold back and starts to sell. In any case, until that signal arrives, the market is in a "garbage time" phase.

Since I can't determine the short-term direction, my approach is to prepare for both scenarios. No matter which way it goes, I have a corresponding plan.

Scenario 1: If the bulls attempt a rebound

If support can truly hold, I will set a small long position in the 3100-3120 range. But never full size. Because for this rebound to stabilize, we need to see clear bullish signals on the 15-minute chart—not just one or two green candles, but gradually increasing volume and a regular upward trend. The target could be 3300-3350.

Scenario 2: If the downward test continues

Once it breaks below 3100, I won't wait; I will reduce my position immediately. In this case, support fails, and the next key level is around 3000. We’ll see from there.

The key is—don't approach this phase with a gambling mindset. The market is looking for direction. Instead of guessing, wait for signals. In this short-term "garbage time," survival is more important than making money.