PIPPIN: The parabolic rally loses momentum as buyers struggle to maintain control

Current State: Short-Term Reality Check

PIPPIN is now trading around $0.31, marking a significant pullback from the recent bullish rally highs that touched $0.78. The price action in recent days reflects a critical transition: from a parabolic move that seemed unstoppable to a consolidation phase where demand needs to be renewed to sustain any future advance. The last seven days have seen declines of 8.03%, highlighting how the token’s volatility remains its defining characteristic.

The Parabolic Move Cools Down: Recovery or Distribution?

During December, PIPPIN executed an almost vertical rise from $0.10 to near $0.70, a move that captured market attention and attracted massive speculative participation. However, this initial dynamism has given way to an increasingly compressed structure. The daily chart now shows decreasing highs formed under a descending resistance line, while higher lows are supported by short-term exponential moving averages. The 20-day EMA is positioned around $0.40 as a dynamic support, and the 50-day EMA hovers near $0.30, confirming that although the overall trend remains intact, momentum has lost acceleration.

The Bollinger Bands reflect this transformation: after an extreme expansion during the bullish move, they are now contracting significantly. This contraction typically precedes a directional move, but the outcome is not guaranteed. The RSI has retreated from overbought levels and now oscillates around 50, indicating cooling demand rather than active distribution. The MACD remains positive but has flattened, suggesting that any upward continuation would require renewed participation rather than pure technical inertia.

Short-Term Dynamics: The Upward Channel Under Pressure

On smaller timeframes, PIPPIN has been moving within an ascending channel that has guided prices higher since the December correction. However, recent attempts to break key resistances have failed. The rejection near $0.50-$0.52 was particularly revealing: instead of seeking new highs, traders took profits, transforming the expansion momentum into equilibrium.

As long as the price stays above $0.44-$0.45, the channel remains valid. A breakdown below that zone would mark the point of failure where control would clearly shift back to sellers and open the door to deeper corrections. The current proximity to the $0.40 level leaves little room for maneuver.

The Invisible Risk: Supply Concentration on the Chain

Beyond the charts, there is a fundamental risk factor that should not be ignored. On-chain data reveal that approximately 80% of PIPPIN’s supply is controlled by interconnected internal wallets, with coordinated clusters holding an estimated $380 million in tokens. Recent analysis indicates that concentration in the top 10 addresses reaches 28.65%, a figure that underscores asymmetry in the distribution of power.

This dynamic partly explains why rebounds have struggled to cleanly break resistance despite transaction volume. Buyers are willing to defend corrections but cautious about chasing breakouts without confirmation. If large holders decide to sell during periods of relative strength, the risk of sharp declines would be considerable.

What Keeps the Narrative Alive?

PIPPIN’s identity as an autonomous AI agent continues to be its main narrative appeal. Planned initiatives for 2026, including multi-chain expansion, private agent execution, and revised incentive mechanisms, support the long-term interest of those who believe in the project’s vision. However, after declines of 23% during recent correction periods, the market demands confirmation through technical structure and sustained demand, not just narrative.

Scenarios Ahead

Optimistic Scenario: A clean close above $0.52 with increasing volume would confirm the persistence of the bullish structure and open the door to new tests of the $0.60-$0.70 zone, recovering part of the previous move.

Risk Scenario: A sustained loss below $0.40 would definitively break the ascending channel and signal a transition to a deeper corrective phase, potentially dragging the price toward previous supports around $0.30.

PIPPIN is no longer in vertical breakout mode. It is at a crossroads where buyers must demonstrate renewed conviction or see momentum completely ceded to sellers. Next week will be decisive.