BTC Consolidates Near $93K as Market Awaits Clarity on Macro Headwinds

Bitcoin opened 2026 with modest gains but failed to sustain its uptrend momentum as trading entered the second week of the year. Currently trading around $92,870, the cryptocurrency has slipped approximately 2% since January 1st, unable to decisively break through the critical $95,000 resistance level that has persisted since last October’s market correction. The attempt to rally at week’s start lost steam following Monday’s peak near $94,800, revealing underlying market hesitation.

Multiple Headwinds Creating Caution Among Investors

The near-term weakness stems from several converging factors weighing on sentiment. Tariff uncertainty emanating from Washington, leadership transitions at the Federal Reserve, and evolving cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks have left market participants in a defensive posture. Adding to the pressure, the US Supreme Court postponed its ruling on the constitutionality of tariffs that would have provided critical policy clarity. These macroeconomic shadows, combined with ETF capital flows and geopolitical tensions, have effectively placed Bitcoin into holding mode.

Expert Takes: Recovery Signals Beneath the Surface

Not all analysts view the current consolidation as strictly bearish. Brian Vieten, senior research analyst in digital assets at Siebert Financial, highlights that Bitcoin’s $90,000 consolidation follows heavy selling driven by tax-loss harvesting concerns and MSCI delisting fears for digital asset treasury companies. The good news: those catalysts have now faded. “The selling pressure has largely subsided,” Vieten noted, suggesting the floor may be firmer than recent price action suggests.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, points to stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data as the immediate headwind. “Macro data is generally stronger than expected, reducing the likelihood of a March rate cut and creating short-term downward pressure on prices,” he explained. Better economic prints have dampened the case for aggressive Fed easing, which typically supports risk assets like Bitcoin.

When the Uptrend Could Resume

Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, offers a catalyst-based perspective. After a strong January start followed by post-rally consolidation, he believes a sustained break above $95,000 could be reflexive—triggering systematic buying that propels BTC back into six-figure territory. The gate-keeping level therefore becomes crucial: hold it and consolidation continues; breach it, and fresh upside momentum could re-engage.

MSCI’s recent decision to shelve its planned removal of digital asset treasury companies from indices further reduces near-term downside risks, removing a key technical overhang.

The Longer View

Despite short-term choppiness, structural optimism persists among the research community. Butterfill anticipates Bitcoin could challenge $200,000 by year-end if macro conditions cooperate, while Ostrovskis underscores that the path higher lies through the $95,000 gateway. The uptrend may be paused, but the underlying case for higher prices remains intact for those with longer time horizons.