Arthur Hayes predicts: The market will reverse in 2026, with 90% of positions already allocated.

In recent market analysis, veteran macroeconomic analyst Arthur Hayes shared his outlook for the 2026 market trend. This trader, who previously worked in macro analysis at Citigroup and Deutsche Bank, provides an intriguing market forecast through in-depth analysis of Federal Reserve policy changes, global liquidity patterns, and personal investment strategies.

The Shift in Central Bank Policy Is Inevitable—Regardless of Who Leads the Fed

Hayes emphasizes a core point: U.S. presidents ultimately always get the monetary policy they want. This conclusion is based on a hundred years of financial history—from the founding of the Fed in 1913, the power struggle between presidents and central bank governors has never ceased, and the president’s will often prevails.

Current political disputes are essentially nothing new. The key is not the personal beliefs of the new Fed chair, but the inevitable realization upon taking office: I work for the president. The current policymakers desire lower interest rates, more abundant money supply, and more vigorous asset markets, while publicly denying any inflation connection—because admitting it would risk electoral failure.

Therefore, regardless of who ultimately takes the seat, the outcome remains the same: The central bank will use all means to accomplish its mission. Hayes candidly states: “Who ends up in that position doesn’t matter to me.”

Old Wine in New Bottles—QE Renamed as RMP

The market’s biggest misconception is waiting for the Fed to explicitly say “quantitative easing” (QE). But that moment will never come. Instead, a new term will be used: Reserve Management Purchase (RMP).

This shift is not semantic play; it’s a political necessity. The term QE has become synonymous with “money printing” in the public mind, and people hate inflation, which translates into political costs at the ballot box. So, the government won’t directly launch QE but will achieve the same goal through a new term like RMP.

Hayes notes that when Bernanke first introduced US-style QE in 2008-2009, markets resisted similarly. The S&P 500 continued to decline until March 2009, when it bottomed out. Bernanke claimed it was just “temporary balance sheet expansion,” but subsequent rounds of QE continued until 2021.

Today’s RMP is replaying the same script. The Fed is buying short-term U.S. Treasuries, not mortgage-backed securities(MBS) or 10-year bonds. From a duration perspective, the impact of T-bills seems limited, but essentially, the Fed is using money market funds and repurchase markets as intermediaries to directly finance the U.S. Treasury’s short end. Over time, as deficits remain high or grow, short-term bond issuance surges, and repo market utilization rises, the market will realize: this is QE.

Market Reversal Timeline: From Confusion to Awareness

Hayes sketches a clear market curve: starting January 2026, asset prices will improve significantly. But by March, market anxiety will resurface—will this “temporary project” end? Volatility will follow. Then, as confirmation of RMP’s continuation takes hold, the market will rally again.

This cycle reflects a psychological transformation from doubt to conviction.

Personal Tactics: 90% of Shots Fired

When asked about his current investment stance, Hayes revealed key info: Maelstrom (his family office) has deployed about 90% of available funds, keeping a small cash reserve for volatility. Not using leverage, they are not panicked by Bitcoin dropping below $80,000 in the short term.

Regarding specific coins, Hayes disclosed that they gained the largest altcoin gains from Ethena (ENA, currently priced at $0.19). He entered early and served as a financial advisor for the project. He believes ENA has leverage properties in changing interest rate environments; when the Fed cuts short-term rates and the RMP narrative is validated, market demand for higher basis will push ENA’s price higher.

Driven by macro thesis, Hayes is most optimistic about the privacy sector’s Zero Knowledge(ZK). He holds a large amount of Zcash (ZEC, currently priced at $369.95), but is more excited about new projects emerging in this field, expecting a batch of standout privacy altcoins by 2026. He even thinks these could be the top-performing altcoins in the next two or three years.

In another core position, he is pleasantly surprised by Hyperliquid (HYPE, currently priced at $23.70), which has been one of his most successful trades over the past year.

The True Value of Privacy and the Clever Tactics of Governments

Regarding the value of the privacy narrative, Hayes offers a calm analysis: most people don’t realize that they can only see what you want them to see. So-called “wallet tracking tools” should be questioned, because what you see may not reflect what actually happened.

The core appeal of privacy coins is—if you truly need to ensure that the government, competitors, or anyone else cannot monitor your activities—do you have such tools today? This fear itself is an investment opportunity.

However, governments have become smarter. They no longer directly ban certain things (which would only spur public desire to use them), but achieve their goals by restricting intermediary services. Hayes recalls his experience buying large amounts of ZEC: he contacted 8 brokers he knew for a multi-million dollar trade, but only 2 were willing to quote, while the other 6 couldn’t trade privacy coins due to regulatory bans.

Today, most exchanges simply cannot trade Zcash or other privacy coins—that’s the government’s real tactic: not outright prohibition, but making access extremely difficult.

Risks and Certainties in Macro Forecasts

When asked about the possibility of being wrong, Hayes honestly admits: if Bitcoin falls from 125,000 to 80,000 and continues downward, that would be a mistake in his judgment. He also acknowledges that market perception is changing, which is the risk he bears in this forecast.

But he has invested real capital into his views. His ultimate goal is Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by 2026. This prediction will be validated by actual market performance.

Deep Reflection on Altcoin Season

Regarding the common question of when altcoin season will return, Hayes’s answer is sharp and honest: Altcoin season has always been happening; you’re just too timid to participate.

People have selective memories about “altcoin season”—full of “could have,” “if only I knew” assumptions. In 2016-2017, anyone could upload a PDF online and leave a payment address; in 2020-2021, everyone was trading NFTs with ugly apes and penguins. But most chose to watch from the sidelines.

The real question is: do you have the courage to seize opportunities when they appear? It’s not that altcoin season doesn’t exist, but that you didn’t buy the projects that eventually soared.

Other Key Points at a Glance

• Ethereum’s position: Settlement king
• Most underestimated risk: Leverage
• Most dangerous macro narrative: Central banks tightening monetary policy
• Best signal for liquidity reversal: Deep dive into central bank and banking system balance sheets, not surface indicators (markets want to fool you)
• Market mentality to ban: Stop believing that market makers manipulate prices against you

For those wanting a glimpse of Hayes’s investment ideas he’s reluctant to reveal directly, his advice is simple and mysterious: Use your imagination.