2025: The TGE is no longer the early entry, it's the price peak

The token market in 2025 revealed a bitter lesson for investors: while 0.80 of projects launch with inflated valuations, over 80% of them end up below the initial price. Analyzing 118 token issuances throughout the year, a surprisingly consistent picture of widespread disappointments emerges, especially in sectors that had promised to dominate the market.

The numbers that tell the story of 2025

Out of 118 monitored projects, 100 suffered losses (84.7%). The figures are ruthless: the median Fully Diluted Valuation has plummeted by 71.1%, while the Market Cap has decreased by 66.8% since launch.

Only 18 projects (15.3%) gained ground, with a median increase of 109.7%. Meanwhile, the other 100 projects burned capital, with a median loss of 76.8%.

One of the most revealing data points: while the decline by equal weight is around 33.3%, the weighted decline for FDV reaches 61.5%. This means only one thing: the largest and most hyped projects suffered the harshest hits.

Where the losses are concentrated

In 2025, 65% of projects saw their prices drop by over 50% from TGE, while 51% experienced declines greater than 70%. 15% of tokens remain above the initial valuation.

The most affected areas were two: infrastructure and artificial intelligence, which together account for 60% of all new issuances. Yet these sectors showed the worst performance, with median losses of 72% and 82%, respectively.

The exception that proves the rule: Perp DEX

Not all is pessimism. Perpetual Decentralized Exchanges recorded an average growth of 213%, representing the true “absolute winners” of 2025. Hyperliquid led the way, and Aster consolidated the trend in the fourth quarter, although the sample remains limited and the median is still negative.

In the DeFi sector, 32% of projects remained in growth, though this is more a case of “survivor survival” than real success. Gaming projects, on the other hand, suffer from a too small sample and distorted anomalous values: while the average is positive, the median losses reach 86%.

The unequivocal correlation: higher FDV, deeper decline

The most significant data: of the 28 projects launched with an initial FDV ≥1.1 billion dollars, 100% are currently in decline, with a median loss of 81%. None of them created value.

This correlation perfectly explains why the FDV-weighted index (61.5% in negative) is so more severe than the equal-weighted one (33.3% in negative): the underperformance of mega-projects dragged down the entire market.

Dividing the market into quartiles of initial FDV, the pattern is crystal clear: only projects launched with low valuations and affordable prices maintained a significant survival rate (40% in growth), with a moderate median loss around -26%. All projects above the average were drastically repriced downward, between -70% and -83% decline.

Lessons from 2025

The TGE in 2025 was no longer an “early entry window”: for most projects, it was instead the peak of prices. Those launched with overly optimistic valuations lacked the fundamentals to justify them; the market simply corrected them downward.

For investors interested in TGEs, the message is clear: you are essentially trying to find rare anomalous values. The basic probabilities indicate that most projects will perform disastrously, especially if launched with a high FDV.

2025 marked a period of “valuation reset.” Token prices followed a steady downward trend, with only a few outliers in growth. The golden rule emerging from the data is simple and universal: the higher the FDV at launch, the greater the final decline.