Bitcoin Seeks to Reclaim $100,000 After Renewed Signals in Derivatives and Institutional Entry

Optimism Reflects Growing Options Setup

The Bitcoin derivatives market shows a notable shift in expectations. While the price remains near $93,030 (with a 2.23% drop in 24 hours), demand is focused on options contracts expiring on January 30 with a strike price of $100,000. According to Deribit data, these positions represent the largest open interest cluster in the derivatives market, with a total notional value more than doubling that of other active setups.

The current structure marks a clear divergence from just three months ago. At the end of the previous quarter, when Bitcoin fell 24% and closed 2025 at $87,648, a defensive mindset prevailed. Today, that selling of bearish hedges has given way to a more pronounced accumulation of bullish positions.

Jake Ostrovskis, OTC operations manager at Wintermute, notes that although the size of these setups does not reach historical extremes, the flow direction remains consistently upward. He highlights that premiums on put options have compressed significantly along the expiration curve, a key indicator that traders are expressing less concern about severe corrections.

Institutional Return Accelerates via Exchange-Traded Funds

Activity in spot Bitcoin ETFs reinforces this reading. Last Monday, these products recorded net inflows of $697.25 million, the largest single-day flow since October 2025. These institutional movements often precede short-term price gains and signal capital re-entry after the massive liquidation of $19 one billion observed when markets plummeted in early October.

The recovery in inflows contrasts with previous volatility. After the heavy outflows following the quarterly drop, we now see sophisticated investors repositioning. This historical pattern links periods of strong accumulation in ETFs with subsequent sustained appreciations.

Supply Dynamics Favor Price Stability

Meanwhile, available supply is contracting. Approximately 12,946 BTC were withdrawn from centralized exchanges in the last 24 hours, equivalent to around $1,200 million in notional value. This net outflow persists steadily over the past week, a behavior viewed positively when prices advance.

Low balances on trading platforms limit immediate supply in the spot market. When demand resurges, as it is now with institutional return, this relative scarcity can support prices. The combination of concentrated bullish options, ETF capital inflows, and coins being moved to private custody creates a favorable context.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels Ahead

Greg Magadini, derivatives director at Amberdata, notes that this environment opens opportunities for medium-term call options. Bitcoin has lagged behind precious metals recently, while gold hits all-time highs and stock indices advance on technological momentum.

Satraj Bambra, CEO of the hybrid exchange Rails, warns to exercise caution. A new exploration of the $100,000-$106,000 range seems likely, but such movement would not confirm a lasting bullish breakout. For a genuine bullish trend to be validated, Bitcoin would need to recover and sustain levels above $106,000 weekly. Only then would a new push toward all-time highs have structural support.

Analysts see the $105,000 level as a possible pause zone if momentum continues. For now, traders are monitoring whether the combination of positive flows into ETFs, supply retracement on exchanges, and changes in options sentiment can sustain this recovery over the coming weeks.