The future doesn't fit on a screen: why smartphones are on the verge of extinction

Smartphones as we know them are numbered. This is not alarmism: it is the calculated bet of one of the most discreet yet successful VCs in Silicon Valley. With 63 profitable exits and 7 IPOs in its two-decade history, True Ventures has built its reputation not by following trends, but by identifying changing behaviors before they become obvious.

The phone: the wrong interface for the AI era

What’s wrong with unlocking a device to send a message? For Jon Callaghan, co-founder of True Ventures, the answer is obvious: it’s inefficient, error-prone, and constantly fragments our attention. Our smartphones are clumsy tools for interacting with intelligence: they require mechanical gestures, generate interruptions, and create friction where there should be fluidity.

This conviction is not new to Callaghan. While other VCs chased fashionable unicorns, True had been exploring alternative interfaces — from wearables to voice-activated devices — for years. The logic was always the same: find the most natural way for humans to interact with technology.

The pattern no one saw coming

Before Fitbit became a mass phenomenon, when Ring was seeking capital and “Shark Tank judges” were shutting the door, when Peloton was seen as an expensive bike with no future — True was already there. Why? Because the firm did not invest in gadgets. It invested in behaviors.

“It’s not about the bike,” recalls Callaghan about his bet on Peloton. It was about the community, the ritual, what the device enabled. The bike was just the vehicle.

The same reasoning explains why True manages approximately $6 billion through 12 seed and select funds, but refuses to raise billions more like its competitors. “Why would you need that to build something incredible today?” asks Callaghan. With checks of $3 to $6 million for a 15-20% stake, True identifies opportunities others still don’t see.

Sandbar: the ring that captures what you think

The latest manifestation of this philosophy is Sandbar — a voice-activated ring that captures and organizes thoughts through audio notes. It’s not a device for everything, but one that “does one thing really well,” according to Callaghan: becoming a thinking companion at the exact moment an idea arises.

Its founders, Mina Fahmi and Kirak Hong, come from CTRL-Labs, where they worked on neural interfaces. But what attracted True was not the hardware. “When we met Mina, we were absolutely aligned on the vision,” says Callaghan. It’s about a behavior that we will soon discover is indispensable.

The evidence in numbers

The market is already sending signals. Smartphones are growing just 2% annually — practically stagnant. Meanwhile, wearables — smartwatches, rings, voice devices — are expanding at double-digit rates. Something is changing in how we want to relate to technology.

Discipline in times of AI mania

In an ecosystem where AI startups raise hundreds of millions from day one with valuations of a billion dollars, True maintains a measured approach. Callaghan believes OpenAI could reach a valuation of one trillion dollars and recognizes that AI is the most powerful computational wave ever seen. But he also sees warning signs: circular funding cycles, $5 trillion projected in capital spending for data centers. “We are in a capital-intensive phase, and that’s concerning,” he warns.

The real opportunities, he says, are not in infrastructure. They are in applications — where new interfaces will create entirely new behaviors.

The philosophy behind the right bets

“It should be scary, it should feel lonely, they should call you crazy,” says Callaghan about successful early investments. “It should be blurry and ambiguous, but you must be with a team you truly believe in.”

Five or ten years later, you’ll know if you were right. True’s track record of betting on hardware others rejected — activity trackers, connected bikes, smart doorbells, and now rings to capture thoughts — suggests it’s worth listening when Callaghan declares that the days of the smartphone are numbered. It’s not prophecy. It’s the consistent execution of a thesis that the market is beginning to validate.