The AI-driven industrial transformation: when the crucial significance of investments exceeds all expectations

The “Fourth Industrial Revolution” Is Already Here: It’s Not a Question of If, but When

Artificial intelligence has ceased to be a mere technological trend and has become the centerpiece of a large-scale global economic reconfiguration. According to analyst Dan Ives, who has spent over 25 years directly observing the evolution of the tech sector—traveling more than 3 million miles to visit data centers and meet industry leaders—this transformation represents much more than an innovation cycle: it is a true structural revolution.

“We cannot assess the magnitude of demand solely through spreadsheets,” Ives emphasized in a recent analysis. His firsthand observations reveal an unprecedented acceleration of investments. In the next two years, resources allocated to AI will surpass the total capital invested in the previous decade, a perspective also supported by other authoritative voices in the sector. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest recently stated: “We are just at the beginning of this story. The first inning has just started.”

Real Investments, Not Speculative Bubbles

The crucial significance of this wave of investments lies in the tangible nature of the resources employed. Unlike the dot-com bubble, today capital flows into tangible infrastructures: migration to the cloud, enhancement of semiconductor manufacturing capacity, government initiatives dedicated to AI, and the renewal of enterprise software systems.

Gartner estimates that global spending on artificial intelligence—including infrastructure, software, hardware, and services—will reach $2 trillion by 2026. This projection is not speculation but reflects a solid underlying demand. According to The Kobeissi Letter, 63% of recent US economic growth comes directly from AI-related investments. As the publication notes: “Without this spending, the economy would be significantly more fragile.”

Ives categorically dismisses theories equating the current cycle with previous speculative bubbles. “We are closer to 1996 than to 1999,” he notes, suggesting that while market sentiment may fluctuate, the underlying structural push remains robust. Some investors still hold contrarian positions: Michael Burry, famous for The Big Short, reportedly has heavily bet against sector leaders like Nvidia and Palantir for a total value of about $10 million.

Geopolitical Rivalry Accelerates the Semiconductor Race

Both the United States and China are making massive investments in computational power, advanced circuits, and AI-driven technologies. This strategic competition underscores the critical importance of companies like Nvidia and high-level software platforms like Palantir, increasingly central to government and defense operations.

A recent decision highlights the dual meaning—economic and strategic—of AI infrastructure. On December 8, President Trump authorized Nvidia to supply its H200 AI chips, the second most advanced in its range, to selected clients in China, with a quarter of sales reserved for the US government to protect national interests. This move reveals how AI hardware has become a fundamental element of national security, not just commercial competitiveness.

The semiconductor supply chain remains the Achilles’ heel of this expansion. Manufacturers like TSMC, ASML, and Intel are just as crucial as the software houses that depend on them, as the demand for AI computing continues to pressure global production capacity.

Beyond the Giants: Hidden Opportunities in the AI Ecosystem

While Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google receive most media attention, Ives identifies significant opportunities in often overlooked sectors:

Cybersecurity as a Line of Defense
With the global digital assets estimated at $150 billion exposed to emerging AI-related threats, organizations are increasingly seeking sophisticated security operations centers. CrowdStrike, identified as a leader in AI-enhanced cybersecurity, is positioned at the forefront of this defense. Wedbush confirmed on December 1st an Outperform rating with a price target of $600, compared to the current price of $509.16. CrowdStrike’s innovative AgentWorks, powered by the Charlotte AI platform, further strengthens its market position. Strategic initiatives such as the acquisition of Onum and Pangea, expansion of Falcon Flex, and achieving FedRAMP High Authorization for Charlotte AI are preparing the company for deeper penetration into public and international markets.

Invisible but Vital Infrastructure
Providers like Vertiv and Akamai, responsible for powering and maintaining temperature in data centers, play a fundamental role despite often going unrecognized by the public.

Enterprise Software Modernization
Software system upgrades, though less visible than hardware innovations, are essential to building a truly AI-driven economy.

Palantir: From Overlooked Company to Ecosystem Champion

Palantir’s trajectory exemplifies Ives’ ability to identify generational winners before the market recognizes them. When the company initially went public at around $10 per share, many analysts dismissed it as dependent on government contracts. However, Ives perceived a silent evolution as the company gained ground in the enterprise sector and underwent a strategic transformation that Wall Street had not yet appreciated.

On July 28, 2023, Ives initiated coverage of Palantir at Wedbush with an Outperform rating and a $25 price target, representing over a 50% increase from the previous close of $16.15. As Palantir’s AI capabilities evolved, Ives progressively raised his targets, nicknaming the company the “Messi of AI” in reference to Lionel Messi’s legendary football skills. Today, shares trade near $180, a compelling validation of Ives’ thesis and a model for recognizing transformative winners before broader consensus does.

“Palantir has been overlooked for years,” Ives reflects. “But watching what Alex Karp and his team have been building, and seeing the stock rise from $10 to its current level, has been extraordinarily rewarding.”

Conclusion: The Decisive Moment

The crucial significance of the current AI investment phase lies in its irreversible and structural character. It is not a cyclical or fleeting phenomenon but a deliberate and massive build-up of infrastructure for the next era of the global economy. Companies of the “second, third, and fourth derivatives”—especially in cybersecurity—are emerging as equally important beneficiaries alongside tech giants, as AI adoption accelerates and creates new frontiers of opportunity. History suggests that those who identify these transformative trends today will likely be on the right side of the economic story of the coming decades.