Will the bullish cycle of precious metals extend into 2026? An analysis of four key factors supporting the continuation of gold gains

Throughout 2025, gold, silver, and platinum have extraordinarily outperformed traditional stocks and even AI-related securities. This phenomenon has surprised many analysts, who considered these metals to be outdated instruments. However, the forces driving this positive dynamic will not disappear tomorrow; in fact, they could intensify. What are the reasons why the bullish cycle might continue in the coming months?

2025 Performance: Precious Metals Outperform Tech Stocks

2025 will be remembered by investors as the year when gold and silver delivered extraordinary results. Silver appreciated by about 150%, platinum by 130%, while gold closed with a solid +64%. Compared to the main AI sector stocks — excluding some exceptional peaks like Palantir — precious metals have demonstrated resilience and strength that few would have predicted.

This surpassing represents a paradigm shift in how markets assess risk and portfolio safety. While stocks remain sensitive to economic cycle fluctuations, gold continues to serve as an emotional and financial anchor for those fearing uncertainty.

Four Pillars Supporting Prices in 2026

1. The Forced De-dollarization of Central Banks

In recent years, a paradigm shift has affected global monetary institutions. Central banks, after the traumas of financial sanctions against Russia and increasing geopolitical tensions, have begun a slow but relentless transition from US Treasury reserves to gold and other precious metals.

This is not a voluntary choice driven by ideological preferences but a rational decision based on systemic risk. Many countries have realized that concentrating reserves in dollar-denominated instruments exposes them to unacceptable political risks. The possibility that the United States might use the financial system as a coercive tool has turned gold into an essential defensive resource.

Alternative currencies proposed by international alliances like BRICS, often backed by gold reserves, further accelerate this trend. In 2026, this reallocation process is expected to continue, supporting gold prices.

2. The US Credit Crisis and Hidden Inflation

The US federal debt has reached dizzying levels: over $38 trillion, with annual additions of trillions. The three main rating agencies have already downgraded US creditworthiness, a rarely observed and always significant signal.

Faced with this reality, heavily indebted governments face a dilemma: raise taxes beyond politically tolerable limits or let inflation silently erode the real value of debt. The second option has traditionally been chosen, turning inflation into an hidden tax on savers.

Since 2020, the dollar’s purchasing power has contracted by over 20%. Looking back to 2000, the cumulative devaluation exceeds 40%. A new generation of investors is discovering the devastating impact of inflation on accumulated wealth. In this context, gold is no longer perceived as a relic of the past but as an essential refuge.

3. Retail Demand Explodes: ETFs and Physical Stores

The most visible phenomenon of the transition to precious metals concerns small investors. In Q3 2025, US-listed gold ETFs experienced massive inflows, with holdings increasing by 160%. Simultaneously, global funds backed by physical silver attracted flows equivalent to 95 million ounces in the first half of the year — a figure surpassing the entire total of 2024.

Traditional retail trade has also seized this opportunity. Retail chains with tens of millions of regular customers have started offering gold and silver coins, turning the search for protection against currency risk into an ordinary activity. Many clients, who previously considered the dollar and savings accounts as the only necessities for a balanced portfolio, are now diversifying into tangible assets.

4. Structural Constraints in Supply and Strategic Resource Status

Global supply of precious metals remains tight. Gold, in particular, faces high extraction costs and presents ongoing challenges for producers. Meanwhile, silver and platinum face supply shortages that have persisted for years, albeit for different reasons.

In a context of moderate economic recession, these imbalances could worsen rather than ease. Additionally, classifying these metals as strategic resources by economic powers has prompted governments to encourage domestic extraction expansion — a process requiring years of planning, permits, and investments. Meanwhile, strategic stockpiling accelerates further.

Outlook for the Coming Months

The bullish cycle of gold and precious metals may not end quickly. Although 2026 is unlikely to replicate the explosive performance of 2025, stocks still have significant appreciation potential. On Friday, January 2nd, during the Asian session, spot gold oscillated upward with a 0.65% gain.

Assuming Western central banks continue their rate-cutting cycle and governments keep structuring budgets in deficit, investors’ concerns about inflationary effects of expansive monetary and fiscal policies will remain alive. This situation will continue to support prices of gold, silver, platinum, and physical assets in general, helping them preserve value amid the deterioration of fiat currencies issued by governments.

At 9:34 (GMT+8), spot gold was quoted at $4,350.67 per ounce, reflecting this dynamic of global uncertainty and search for stability.