Financial Markets Overview: Analysis of the January 5, 2026 Session Amid Sector Volatility and Rate Cut Expectations

I. Movement of International Indices and Macroeconomic Context

Today’s session highlighted a mixed performance among the major US stock indices. The Dow Jones rose by 0.66%, continuing the positive trend on the first day of the year, while the S&P 500 modestly advanced by 0.19%, driven by Chinese stocks. The Nasdaq, on the other hand, closed slightly negative at -0.03%, reflecting correction pressures on some tech giants. This divergence characterizes a market still balancing growth opportunities and the need for consolidation.

II. Signals from the Federal Reserve

US central bank officials have conveyed encouraging messages to investors. In particular, Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Paulson stated that in a moderate economic environment, interest rates could undergo further adjustments throughout the year. The economic outlook shows signs of stabilization with decreasing inflation, a consolidating labor market, and an expected annual GDP growth around 2%.

The impact of these statements could reinforce investor expectations of an accommodative monetary policy, supporting a moderate expansion of stock markets. However, surprises in economic data could amplify short-term volatility.

III. Geopolitical Dynamics and Commodities

The situation in Venezuela continues to exert pressure on markets. Emerging geopolitical tensions are boosting demand for safe-haven assets, causing gold prices to rise in the short term. Oil, meanwhile, remains subject to fluctuations due to concerns over global supply. Sector observers suggest closely monitoring OPEC+ responses to regional developments.

IV. Investment Themes for 2026: AI Energy, Innovative Drugs, and Chinese Recovery

Major financial institutions have identified three pillars for this year’s investment strategies. Investments in AI infrastructure are entering a new phase, where traditional giants stabilize while new players like Broadcom emerge. In the pharmaceutical sector, the weight-loss drug market is diversifying, with focus shifting toward approval of cardiovascular solutions. Regarding China, analysts forecast growth above consensus, driven by exports in the tech sector.

V. Sector Analysis and Stock Performance

Big Tech: Fragmented Landscape

Tech giants showed divergent performances today:

• NVIDIA: +1.26%, supported by positive expectations for CES 2026 focusing on industrial AI and robotics
• Apple: -0.31%, under correction pressure
• Alphabet (Google-A): +0.69%, with the search business remaining solid
• Microsoft: -2.21%, due to increasing competition in cloud computing
• Amazon: -1.87%, with the e-commerce sector under pressure
• Meta: -1.47%, with controversies over AI development strategies negatively impacting the stock
• Tesla: -2.59%, lower-than-expected delivery data weigh significantly

Rising Sectors

Chinese Stocks: +4.38% rebound Baidu and Alibaba lead the recovery with gains of 15.03% and 6.25%, respectively, supported by a strong start to the year and renewed investor optimism toward the Asian market.

Memory Chips: Gains exceeding 8% Micron Technology (+10.51%) and Western Digital (+8.96%) benefit from expectations of demand recovery and global supply chain optimization.

AI and Nuclear Energy: Significant increases Bloom Energy (+13.58%) and NuScale Power (+15.17%) benefit from favorable policies for energy transition and expanded technological applications.

Crypto and Solar Energy: Simultaneous Rise Riot Platforms (+11.76%) and SolarEdge Technologies (+8%) are driven by safe-haven sentiment and expectations of government incentives for renewable energy.

VI. In-Depth on Key Stocks

Tesla: Disappointing Q4 Deliveries

In Q4 2025, Tesla announced the delivery of 418,200 new cars, reaching 1,636,100 vehicles for the full year, with production of 434,400 and 1,654,700 units respectively. These figures are below analyst consensus, forcing Tesla to cede its global lead in electric vehicle sales to BYD. Year-over-year decline reflects ongoing supply chain challenges and increasing competition in the segment.

Analysts attribute the weakness to demand saturation and price wars. Many institutions have lowered target prices, though some, like Morgan Stanley, maintain positive ratings highlighting the potential of new models like the Cybertruck. In the short term, the stock may remain under pressure, making monitoring of guidance for the first quarter important.

Berkshire Hathaway: End of a Legendary Era

Warren Buffett officially concludes his CEO career after 60 years at the helm of Berkshire Hathaway, handing over to Greg Abel. Since starting in 1965, total shareholder returns have reached 6,100,000%, far surpassing the 46,000% of the S&P 500. The transition marks the end of an era, but the company remains robust with diversified activities spanning insurance to railroads.

Major analysts, including Barclays, see the transition as stable, emphasizing the experience of the successor. While some express concerns about losing Buffett’s influence, overall sentiment remains optimistic about portfolio diversification. Stock volatility should remain contained in the short term, offering value investors a long-term buying opportunity.

Meta: Ethical Controversies in AI

One month after his departure, Yann LeCun, a prominent figure in AI, revealed that the Llama 4 model used different versions in benchmark tests to optimize scores. The new leadership shows gaps in research experience, with poor internal communication and accelerated AI deployment worsening organizational issues.

Financial institutions, while recognizing Meta’s substantial resources, fear ethical risks in AI development. Some analysts have downgraded ratings, citing increasing competitive pressure. The event could attract regulatory attention, making monitoring of upcoming AI product developments important. Medium-term caution is advised, while long-term optimism remains about user loyalty to social platforms.

NVIDIA: CES 2026 Spotlight

At CES 2026, NVIDIA is steering its strategy toward industrial AI and robotics, while competitors AMD and Intel focus on PC upgrades. The event features exhibitions of humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, and intense competition among Chinese, American, and Korean companies, with NVIDIA leading the announcement of new hardware.

Analysts from institutions like UBS are optimistic about demand for AI infrastructure and have raised target prices. Despite potential valuation risks, consensus remains positive on growth trajectory. CES could serve as a catalyst for the stock; continued diversification of applications reinforces sector leadership.

VII. Data and Upcoming Events

The December ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 23:00 US time, marking a key market attention point.

The opening session of CES 2026, scheduled from January 4 to 9, offers an opportunity to monitor new products announced by chip giants and assess trends in AI industrialization. The first legal hearing related to geopolitical issues is scheduled at noon in New York, an event to follow for potential impacts on oil and gold.

VIII. Market Outlook

The US stock market presents overall favorable fundamentals for 2026. Global economic growth remains solid, supported by expansion in AI-related infrastructure and a Federal Reserve monetary policy oriented toward accommodation. Despite current geopolitical tensions pushing toward safe assets, themes of technology and energy transition are expected to continue dominating capital flows.

Risks related to trade policies and potential changes in central bank leadership should be closely monitored. The recommended strategy involves resource allocation toward AI-related sectors, avoiding excessive exposure to more cyclical segments, and seizing long-term structural opportunities.

Transparency statement: Analytical content has been prepared through automated research with manual verification prior to dissemination and does not constitute personal investment recommendations.