Four years of foreign dispute: the EU leans towards an agreement with Mercosur despite farmers' anger

Twenty-five years ago, trade negotiations began between the European Union and the South American bloc Mercosur. On Friday, a decision was finally made – the bloc gave provisional approval to sign this historic agreement, but the path to its ratification remains full of turbulence.

Why are farmers taking to the streets?

From southern Europe to eastern Poland, farmers are mobilizing to defend their interests. Blockades of French and Belgian highways, marches in Poland – these are responses to concerns that their markets have been abandoned. Indeed, the EU’s readiness to open the door to cheap beef, poultry, and sugar from Mercosur threatens local farmers. France, as the largest agricultural producer in the EU, was the first to voice opposition – and became the only “no” vote in the EU countries’ vote.

However, Warsaw, Vienna, Budapest, and Dublin also voted against. This shows that opposition is not limited to the Parisian government. Belgium abstained from voting, further complicating the situation.

Most chose trade over protest

At least 15 countries – representing 65 percent of the EU population – supported the agreement. Other sources mention support from 21 countries, including Germany and Italy, which ultimately shifted from skeptics to supporters.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz was unequivocal: this Friday’s vote is a “milestone." He believed that the agreement supports the German economy and all of Europe. However, he immediately added – 25 years of negotiations is an epic too long. Future agreements must be concluded more quickly.

What will the EU gain, and what will it lose?

Eliminating 4 billion euros in tariffs on European exports is a significant gain. The EU mainly exports machinery, chemicals, and transport equipment. Mercosur specializes in agricultural goods, minerals, pulp, and paper. The total trade between the blocs currently exceeds 111 billion euros annually.

But the outlook is threatening for EU farmers – Mercosur imposes high tariffs on imports: 35 percent on car parts, 28 percent on dairy products, 27 percent on wines. The EU negotiated under pressure – the Trump administration was increasing tariffs worldwide, and access to mineral resources from South America was becoming a strategic priority.

Will safeguards be enough or not?

The European Commission tried to allay concerns. It established mechanisms to suspend imports of sensitive agricultural products, strengthened pesticide contamination controls, prepared a crisis fund for farmers, and approved tariff reductions on fertilizers.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni stated that the achieved balance is sustainable – which explains her country’s shift from “no” in December to “yes” on Friday. For France, however, concessions proved insufficient.

Brussels says “yes,” but the game continues

Member state capitals had until 17:00 GMT (16:00 Warsaw time) to submit written confirmations of their votes. This would allow the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to sign the agreement in Asunción, possibly as early as next week.

But this is not the end. The agreement requires approval by the European Parliament, where the vote could be tied. Radical left and far-right factions in France are announcing votes of no confidence against the government. Marches against the agreement will intensify.

European environmental organizations warn – goods from Mercosur often come from deforested areas, threatening the Amazon. “This unpopular agreement is a disaster for forests. No progressive MEP involved in environmental protection should support it,” appeals Greenpeace EU.

German Social Democrat Bernd Lange, head of the trade committee in Parliament, expressed confidence that the final vote will take place in April or May. Until then, the pace of discussions will accelerate.