High Fade Strategy Signals Major BTC Rally: Traders Eye $112K-$160K Breakout Phase

Winter’s market turbulence isn’t stopping the bulls—at least according to seasoned crypto traders reading the structural signals. With Bitcoin currently trading at $92.95K (down 2.03% in 24 hours but up 2.41% weekly), a contrarian thesis is gaining traction among experienced market participants who see pullbacks as setup zones rather than trend failures.

The Case for Continued Upside

Veteran trader Astronomer, with over eight years in the crypto arena, maintains that Bitcoin’s macro bull structure remains intact despite recent volatility and widespread bearish sentiment. His conviction level is notably high: he forecasts a minimum target of $112,000 with near-certainty, while projecting a secondary target around $118,000 with 91% probability. Any dips toward the $90,300 weekly open or the $88,000 support zone should be viewed as consolidation opportunities, not cycle reversals.

The trader’s framework leans on price action analysis and Fibonacci ratios rather than traditional indicators. Key technical levels he’s monitoring include the 0.75 Fibonacci resistance near $93,000, the weekly open liquidity magnet at $90,300, and the critical 0.5 Fibonacci support floor around $88,000. His conviction extends nine to thirteen weeks into the future, suggesting Bitcoin should avoid weekly closes below $80,600 through early March 2026.

Where the Real Breakout Awaits

Astronomer’s medium-to-longer-term outlook paints an even bolder picture. He forecasts that a new Bitcoin all-time high will likely materialize in January 2026, with an earlier December test possible. More aggressively, he projects the four-year cycle peak could arrive between February and March 2026, potentially driving prices toward $160,000 if market euphoria intensifies.

This high fade strategy—fading panic selling and shorting conviction during fear phases—mirrors historical capitulation patterns where aggressive selling from weak hands often marks the final washout before major rallies. The trader’s approach involves scaling positions to manage downside risk while maintaining core long exposure through consolidation zones.

Real Trading in Action

On the execution front, Astronomer’s recent December activity reveals a tactical approach: he entered long positions between $84,100 and $90,000, targeting $93,000, then scaled out most of the position while leaving a 5% runner, banking approximately +2.5R (2.5 times risk). A subsequent short entry near $93,000 resulted in partial profit-taking at $91,800 and $91,000, capturing roughly +2R.

His risk management style typically deploys 20% of his trading account per swing, targeting roughly 2% gains for every 1% BTC move. This conservative position sizing allows him to maintain exposure through multiple cycles without experiencing catastrophic drawdowns.

Ethereum Sets Up for the Next Wave

Ethereum, currently trading at $3.22K (down 2.98% daily but up 3.19% weekly), faces a different but equally bullish setup according to the same analyst. Current bearish sentiment is largely misinterpreting small liquidity sweeps and short-term pullbacks as macro weakness. Instead, Astronomer argues that in today’s whale-dominated market structure, these minor pullbacks create ideal accumulation zones.

His forecast: Ethereum will push toward $5,000+ and establish a new all-time high, invalidating the widespread bearish “cycle top” calls from traders who mistook consolidation for reversal.

The Bottom Line

Pullbacks remain opportunities for contrarian positioning rather than exit signals. As broader sentiment cycles through fear and greed, aggressive builders are accumulating during the high fade phases—precisely when conviction and patience separate winners from panic-sellers. The structure supports continuation, not capitulation.