## Bitcoin under macroeconomic pressures and breaking the chart parabola: what could save it

Bitcoin's technical dynamics are becoming more complicated as global macroeconomic risks converge. Veteran analyst Peter Brandt has signaled a break of Bitcoin's chart parabola, a scenario that historically has preceded corrections of over 80%, but this time the market context presents significant structural differences.

### **The technical signal of the chart parabola and historical precedents**

According to Brandt's analysis published on X, Bitcoin in previous bullish cycles followed a parabolic trajectory that inevitably degraded over time. Each time the main chart parabola was surpassed, the price experienced an extended corrective phase. In the past, these movements have resulted in declines close to 80% from the cycle high, although with severe characteristics for those waiting for a rebound.

Currently, Bitcoin's price (BTC) at **$93.02K** (with a -2.22% change in the last 24 hours) is about 20% below the all-time high of **$126.08K**. The break of the current chart parabola suggests that the market is in a zone where historically bearish volatility has amplified, especially when global liquidity conditions contract.

If it follows the pattern of previous cycles, an 80% correction would bring Bitcoin down to the $25,000 area in the coming months.

### **The macroeconomic storm hits the crypto market**

The technical signal coincides with increasing macroeconomic pressures. Derivatives markets are pricing with a 97% probability a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) scheduled for December 19, with a 0.25% increase.

Historically, rate hikes by the BOJ have generated adverse effects on risk assets. The unwinding of yen carry trades triggers a tightening of global financing conditions, forcing leveraged positions to reduce quickly.

Recent experience demonstrates this: Bitcoin recorded declines of 27% in March 2024, 30% in July 2024, and another 30% in January 2025 after BOJ rate hikes. The convergence of the bearish technical signal and macroeconomic liquidity risks creates a scenario of double pressure on the price.

### **Why this time could be different: the demand structure has changed**

Despite historical parallels, the accumulation and adoption base of Bitcoin has transformed since 2022. Glassnode data shows that corporate Bitcoin treasuries have grown from about 197,000 BTC in January 2023 to over 1.08 million BTC today, representing a 448% increase.

This evolution reflects Bitcoin's transition from a speculative instrument to a strategic component of corporate balance sheets. The supply held by long-term investors remains solid, while spot ETF products have introduced more stable flows driven by institutions.

Although these changes do not completely eliminate the risk of downside, they suggest that any corrections could be more contained and absorbed compared to past market cycles. The structural demand has thus strengthened, creating a "floor" of support higher than in previous cyclical phases.