Bitcoin in a technical crisis – is an exit from the danger zone still possible?

Bitcoin is facing a critical moment for its next moves. The current valuation at around $93,060 signals that the largest cryptocurrency is below both the 23-week moving average (101,870 USD) and the 50-week moving average (106,528 USD). This situation paints a clear picture of investors who closed their positions too early and are now observing further selling pressure from those waiting for more favorable conditions.

Two Scenarios – One Resolution

From a technical perspective, the markets present Bitcoin with two possible scenarios. In the first – more optimistic – BTC rises above the zone from $101,870 to $106,528 and closes the week within this area. If this happens, the narrative of a “death cross” would lose significance, and the next target would be $107,155. This would create an opportunity to break through resistance.

Alternatively, if Bitcoin remains below this range, technical support appears at $80,600. For many analysts, this zone is crucial – it marks the boundary between a normal correction and a more serious crisis. If selling pressure persists, the next significant support levels are $74,111 and then $67,026, where the 200-week moving average is located.

Breaking below $600 from the psychologically important level of $80,600 would signify a shift in narrative from “buying on dips” to pure risk management. Investors would then focus mainly on protecting their portfolios rather than seeking opportunities.

Macro-economic Turbulence Adds Pressure

Bitcoin’s technical challenges do not occur in a vacuum. Recently, the market observed a clear slowdown in capital inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. This directly impacts risk appetite among institutional investors. Additionally, cautious signals from the Federal Reserve regarding possible interest rate changes deepen uncertainty across the entire cryptocurrency market.

These macroeconomic factors compound the already fragile technical picture, creating a scenario where Bitcoin is under constant pressure both from below (sellers) and from external (market conditions).

What’s Next?

The current situation requires monitoring three key levels: $101,870 (return point to the moving averages), $80,600 (first support), and $67,026 (last line of defense at the 200-week moving average). Closing the week above or below these levels will determine whether Bitcoin exits the danger zone or if a more complex downward scenario begins.