The Fed's rate cut fuels market pessimism: Bitcoin remains stuck in a fragile equilibrium range.

The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point easing on Wednesday, the third intervention of the year. However, the outcome did not galvanize investors as one might expect. According to news agencies, the vote split (9-3 with divergent positions) reveals deep fractures within the institution regarding the next steps of U.S. economic policy. This “fragile label” marking today’s decision has caused misunderstandings and unexpected volatility in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin had anticipated the announcement by rising above $94,000 on Monday, fueled by pre-FOMC speculation. However, media reports about a Fed divided between those fearing persistent inflation and those supporting further easing reversed the trend. Today, the quote hovers around $93.11K, with a 2.06% decrease in the last 24 hours, unable to stabilize in the psychological zone of $100,000 that the market continues to chase.

Why Bitcoin isn’t taking off despite rate cuts

Glassnode analysts have identified an unstable market structure trapping BTC. The coin remains compressed between two crucial levels: the short-term average cost of $102,700 upward and the “True Market Mean” at $81,300 downward. This compressed corridor does not represent a healthy consolidation range but rather a phase of high tension where sellers maintain constant pressure.

On-chain data paint a picture of structural weakness. Futures demand is contracting while the price attempts to advance—a divergence signaling a lack of speculative confidence. Simultaneously, unrealized losses in wallets have reached 4.4% on a 30-day moving average, the highest in two years, increasing the likelihood of forced liquidations as red-held investors succumb to psychological pressures.

Profit realization dynamics block recovery

Paradoxically, those who should be pushing prices higher are actually holding back the ascent. Long-term holders (more than one year of holding) have crystallized over @E0$billion daily in profits$1 , with peaks of $1.3 billion, realizing their positions just as the price approaches critical thresholds. At the same time, realized losses have hit @E0$ millions daily$555 —a level identical to that observed during the FTX collapse in 2022, signaling a wave of capitulation among small investors.

This combination of aggressive distribution by large holders and liquidation by small investors creates an atmosphere of distrust that keeps BTC under pressure. The resistance zone of $95,000–$102,000 represents a psychological barrier that the market repeatedly attempts to break through without success, further consolidating the perception of weakness.

The spot market leads, futures abandon

CryptoQuant highlighted a significant anomaly: Bitcoin’s rebound from November (when it hit lows at $92,700) was primarily driven by spot purchases rather than leveraged speculation. While the price reached new levels, open interest in the derivatives market remained in decline, confirming that the movement lacks the structurally dominant speculative component seen in sustained rallies.

The futures market, historically responsible for 90% of total activity, shows stagnant volume. Spot volume accounts for just 10% of total activity, insufficient to sustain a lasting bullish momentum if expectations of further monetary easing diminish. Analysts warn that without leverage, Bitcoin’s price economy remains fragile and vulnerable to reversals.

Time factor works against the bulls

Every day Bitcoin remains trapped below $100,000 increases the buildup of latent losses, triggering a psychological and technical mechanism that fuels further selling. The window for a decisive rebound is narrowing as structural pressures continue to weigh on the market. With volatility potentially intensifying if rate cut expectations change, the market remains in a precarious balance where the slightest negative momentum could trigger a significant correction.