The Great Shift in Crypto Assets in 2026: From Retail-Driven to Institutional Era

From Blockchain Industry Observation

2026 is set to become a watershed year in the history of crypto assets. After 15 years of high volatility and hot money speculation, the market is undergoing a fundamental transformation—shifting from retail-driven sentiment to institutional capital-driven dynamics.

Why is 2026 worth paying attention to?

Two core driving forces are taking shape:

First, the macroeconomic environment provides an excellent entry point for crypto assets. With US Treasury yields high and the dollar under increasing depreciation pressure, the world is seeking reliable stores of value. Bitcoin and Ethereum, with their limited supply, high transparency, and fully programmable features, are becoming preferred hedges against dollar risk. It is expected that around March 2026, the 20 millionth Bitcoin will be mined.

Second, regulatory clarity is significantly improving. In 2025, the US Congress passed legislation related to stablecoins, the SEC eliminated SAB 121 accounting standards, and regulatory agencies worldwide are shifting from “clamping down” to “participating.” Industry insiders generally expect that by 2026, the US will introduce bipartisan consensus-based structural legislation for the crypto market, which will fundamentally change institutional attitudes toward crypto assets.

What will be the result?

A new wave of institutional capital is continuously flowing into the market through spot ETPs (Exchange-Traded Products). Since January 2024, global crypto spot ETPs have attracted approximately $87 billion in net inflows. Although this is substantial, crypto assets account for less than 0.5% of the wealth managed by US trusts and advisors—indicating enormous growth potential in the future.

Why the “Four-Year Cycle” Theory is Being rewritten

Traditionally, the crypto market is believed to cycle every four years, related to Bitcoin halving cycles. Historically, all three bull market peaks occurred 1-1.5 years after Bitcoin halving. But this time, things are different.

This bull market has already lasted over three years, with the last halving occurring in April 2024. According to the old pattern, a peak should have been reached long ago. However, the actual increase from early 2024 to October 2024 was only about 240%—far below the at least 1000% growth seen in previous cycles.

What does this reflect? Institutional capital entering the market has changed its nature.

In the past, the crypto market was driven by retail small trades, prone to emotional explosive growth and crashes. Now, large institutional funds are more stable and sustained, leading to a gentler price curve. This is a positive signal—volatility decreases, and fundamentals strengthen.

We believe there will be no deep bear market in 2026. On the contrary, supported by continuous inflows of institutional capital, major crypto assets are expected to achieve steady growth, with a high probability of Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs in the first half of the year.

Top 10 Crypto Investment Themes

1. US dollar depreciation risk boosts demand for stores of value

Related assets: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Zcash

The US fiscal deficit continues to widen, and long-term inflation pressures are hard to eliminate. In this context, digital assets with fixed supply caps become ideal hedging tools. Bitcoin’s cap of 21 million coins and Ethereum’s programmable features make them strong competitors to “digital gold.”

2. Regulatory clarity supports broad asset adoption

Related assets: Almost all

Progress in US regulation in 2025 includes: passage of the GENIUS Act, removal of SAB 121 accounting standards, and the launch of unified listing standards for crypto ETPs. The expected structural legislation in 2026 will further solidify crypto assets’ position in mainstream finance, enabling institutions to hold, trade, and invest in them openly.

3. The era of stablecoins is arriving

Related assets: Ethereum, Tron, BNB Chain, Solana, Polygon, Chainlink

In 2025, stablecoin trading volume surpassed $1.1 trillion monthly, with issuance approaching $300 billion. With the GENIUS Act taking effect, stablecoins will further integrate into cross-border payments, derivatives collateralization, and corporate treasury management. Larger stablecoin trading volumes mean more fee income for the underlying blockchains supporting these transactions.

4. Asset tokenization reaches a critical point

Related assets: Chainlink, Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, BNB Chain, Compound

Currently, tokenized assets account for only 0.01% of the total global equity and bond markets, but the growth potential is up to 1,000 times. From real estate to bonds, from art to commercial receivables, more real-world assets are being tokenized on-chain. Ethereum and Solana are the main platforms now, but the landscape may change in the future.

5. Privacy becomes mainstream, no longer a niche demand

Related assets: Zcash, Aztec, Railgun

As blockchain becomes a mainstream financial infrastructure, privacy will shift from optional to essential. Most users do not want their financial information exposed on public ledgers. Zcash, with native privacy features, and privacy middleware like Aztec and Railgun, are expected to see broader adoption.

6. AI and blockchain integration is the future direction

Related assets: Bittensor, Immutable Protocol, Near, World

Centralized AI faces trust, bias, and ownership issues. Blockchain offers solutions: Bittensor builds a decentralized AI computation marketplace, World Protocol provides “identity proof” to distinguish humans from AI, and Story Protocol creates transparent ownership chains for digital content creators. This intersection is nurturing a new “Agent economy” ecosystem.

7. DeFi lending as a core growth driver

Related assets: Aave, Morpho, Maple Finance, Kamino, Uniswap, Aerodrome, Raydium, Jupiter, Hyperliquid, Chainlink

In 2025, DeFi lending markets expanded rapidly, with protocols like Aave and Morpho leading. As liquidity and cross-chain interoperability improve, DeFi is becoming a trusted alternative for users wanting on-chain operations. Institutional interest in high-yield lending products is also rising.

8. Next-generation infrastructure vying for mainstream applications

Related assets: Sui, Monad, MegaETH, Near

High-performance blockchains were once dismissed as “excess block space,” until new application waves proved their value. Sui supports AI micro-payments, real-time gaming loops, and high-frequency on-chain transactions with its unique object model architecture. Monad’s parallel EVM and MegaETH’s ultra-fast L2 are competing for the next killer app.

9. Sustainable revenue models become investment standards

Related assets: Solana, Ethereum, BNB Chain, Hyperliquid, Pump Fun, Tron

Institutional investors are increasingly focusing on blockchain fundamentals—user numbers, transaction volume, fee income, TVL, developer activity. Among these, on-chain fee income is the hardest to manipulate and most comparable. Solana, Ethereum, and BNB Chain lead in fee revenue, benefiting related ecosystem applications.

10. Staking becomes the standard holding method

Related assets: Lido, Jito

In 2025, US regulators clarified that liquid staking does not constitute a security and allowed investment funds to participate in digital asset staking. This opens a huge new market. Investors holding PoS assets via ETPs can now conveniently earn staking rewards. Lido and Jito, as leading liquid staking protocols on Ethereum and Solana, are well-positioned.

Two “False Signals” to Watch Out For

Quantum computing threat is exaggerated

While post-quantum cryptography indeed requires ongoing research and preparation, experts generally believe that quantum computers capable of breaking current cryptography will not appear before 2030 at the earliest. The threat by 2026 remains distant and unlikely to be a key variable affecting the crypto market.

Digital asset trust companies(DATs) will not become main players

Although companies like MicroStrategy have attracted market attention by including Bitcoin on their balance sheets, the proportion of crypto assets held by DATs remains very small, and premiums have nearly disappeared. They will be part of the long-term trend but are unlikely to be the main drivers in 2026.

Final Outlook for 2026

Macro environment is favorable. Dollar depreciation pressure, policy uncertainties, and limitations of traditional hedges like gold are boosting investor demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Regulatory direction is clear. From containment to embrace, from ambiguity to clarity, mainstream US policymakers are carving out a legitimate space for crypto assets. This shift itself is a powerful wind.

Institutional capital is flowing steadily. No longer a one-time surge, but continuous and stable inflows via ETPs and other compliant channels. This changes the market’s rhythm and nature.

Fundamentals are more solid. From stablecoin trading volume, DeFi lending scale, tokenized asset growth, to AI-blockchain integration creating new scenarios, the application foundation of the crypto ecosystem is becoming broader and deeper.

Based on these factors, we hold a cautiously optimistic view of the crypto market in 2026. The key is not how high prices can go, but that this year will mark the official transition of crypto assets from speculative instruments to financial infrastructure. Assets with clear use cases, stable revenue models, and regulatory compliance will attract the most attention; tokens still operating in gray areas face greater risks.

In 2026, the maturity of crypto assets will truly arrive.