Why will Bitcoin's market in 2025 be completely different from 2022?

【ChainNews】Some analysts have pointed out that using the 2022 logic to understand the current Bitcoin market is not a very professional approach. Although both periods seem to have corrections, a deeper look reveals fundamental differences.

From several perspectives: the long-term price structure is different. 2022 was a clearing at the top of a major cycle, whereas now we are in a different upward phase. The macro environment has also completely changed — at that time, facing an interest rate hike cycle and liquidity tightening, whereas the current global policies and economic situation are clearly different.

More importantly, the composition of investors has changed. In recent years, institutional participation has significantly increased, and retail investors’ share has decreased. The distribution of chips has also changed, with large and institutional holdings having vastly different strategies compared to two years ago. These factors all influence market volatility characteristics and bottom support.

In simple terms, although on the surface both are corrections, the driving forces, participants, and expectations are different. Rigidly applying past cycle experiences may lead to pitfalls.