January 19, 2026 $ETH 4-hour timeframe has shifted from an uptrend to a downtrend, with technical indicators fully turning bearish. Blind bottom fishing is not recommended.

Trend Analysis
1. Volume-Price Divergence: Decreasing volume during price rise and increasing volume during decline is a classic signal of trend reversal.
2. EMA Death Cross: Short-term moving average crosses below long-term moving average, confirming a bearish alignment.
3. MACD Weakening: DIF and DEA cross below zero line, with histogram below zero and expanding, indicating strong bearish momentum.
4. Key Levels Breached: Price broke down with increased volume through previous consolidation zone's lower boundary and important psychological levels (such as 3300, 3200).

Although StochRSI shows short-term oversold conditions, potentially triggering a rebound, this is more likely a technical pullback within a downtrend rather than a trend reversal.

Key Level Analysis

Resistance Levels:
First Resistance: 3280 - 3300. This is the lower boundary of the previous consolidation zone, also where the slow EMA (3278) and fast EMA (3271) are located. Rebound to this area may encounter strong selling pressure.
Second Resistance (Strong Resistance): 3350 - 3360. This is the recent rebound high area and the starting point of the current decline, making it very difficult to break through.
Third Resistance (Trend Reversal Critical Level): 3400. A volume breakout above the previous high (3367.79) and stabilization are needed to reconsider the possibility of an uptrend.

Support Levels:
First Support: 3180 - 3200. The recent low after a sharp decline and the current price range. If broken, further downside potential opens.
Second Support (Important Support): 3100 - 3120. The launch pad for this rally and a previous dense trading zone.
Third Support: 3000. An important psychological integer level.

Trading Recommendations

Currently in a clear downtrend. Technical indicators have fully turned bearish, confirmed by volume-driven decline.

For holders: Focus on risk management. Any rebound to the 3280-3300 resistance zone should be an opportunity to reduce positions or set stop-losses. Consider placing stops above 3300.
For those with no positions/traders: Do not blindly bottom fish. Wait for two opportunities:
1. Trend-following opportunity: If the price rebounds to the 3280-3300 resistance zone and shows signs of stagnation (such as long upper shadows or indicator divergence), consider a light short position targeting 3180, with stops above 3350.
2. Counter-trend rebound (high risk): If the price stabilizes around 3180 and shows small-timeframe (e.g., 1-hour) bullish divergence or bullish candlestick patterns, consider a small long position for a short-term rebound, targeting 3250-3280, with strict stops below 3150.
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