2026-01-19 10:26:41

This week's crypto market has been a roller coaster. On Monday, BTC opened below $92,000, ETH dropped 10% in a single day, and the total liquidations across the network surged to the $120 million level, causing many leveraged longs to be wiped out instantly. Despite such volatility, some still promote a "super bull market," but the data will prove them wrong.

**Federal Reserve Rate Cuts ≠ Crypto Market Surge**

Many blame this week's sharp decline on expectations of the FOMC meeting, believing that rate cuts would release liquidity. But the reality is much more complex. Looking at the rate cut cycle in September 2024 provides a clue—BTC surged to $62,000 but then retraced to the $60,000 support level. The key point is that the liquidity released by rate cuts doesn't flow directly into the crypto market; instead, it is first absorbed by US stocks' AI concept stocks and the bond market.

What’s more painful is that the US August CPI year-over-year increase is still stuck at 2.9%, with core inflation showing no signs of easing. No matter how dovish Powell appears, maintaining price stability remains the top priority. Relying on rate cuts to "win effortlessly" in the crypto space is basically a fantasy; macroeconomic pressures will crush you like chives into a pancake.

Another overlooked point: Powell's term lasts until May 2026, and currently, the Trump administration is still pushing tariffs. The Federal Reserve's independence faces challenges, and policies may fluctuate repeatedly. Such uncertainty is the least friendly to the market.

**On-Chain Data Is the Truth**

To understand this week's plunge, we need to look at options and leverage data. On January 19, Deribit had $3.7 billion in BTC/ETH options expiring soon, with ETH's put-call ratio reaching 1.2, indicating strong bearish sentiment. Plus, last week’s leveraged long positions were already at dangerous levels; once stop-loss triggers occur, chain reactions of liquidations become inevitable. This isn’t a natural market correction but a technical inevitability.

Overall, instead of listening to various bullish claims, it’s better to focus on on-chain data and macroeconomic background. The market now needs clarity, not emotional manipulation.

BTC-4,63%

ETH-7,79%

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GateUser-44a00d6c

· 14h ago

The liquidity released by rate cuts has all been absorbed by the US stock market; the crypto circle is still dreaming. Wake up, everyone. --- 1.2 billion liquidation, this is the result of listening to bullish market rhetoric. There are no lucky ones in the face of data. --- Powell keeps flip-flopping; uncertainty is the biggest killer. Those still fully invested are truly brave. --- Options expiration causes dumps, leverage liquidations—this is inevitable technical behavior, not some conspiracy theory. --- Instead of listening to various influencers boast, it's better to look at on-chain data yourself. Don’t be driven by emotions. --- This week's market is textbook-like: long positions are crowded to the limit, ready to trigger at any moment. It’s high time to wake up. --- Inflation is stuck at 2.9%. The Federal Reserve has no time to pump liquidity into the crypto market. Overthinking it is really unnecessary.

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LiquidityWhisperer

· 01-19 12:11

Lowering interest rates is really not a universal key; the bloodsucking ability of those in the US stock market is much stronger than in the crypto circle. It's both dumping and liquidation this week, which is really nerve-wracking. Some people are even calling for a bull market. The macro environment is so complex that blindly chasing gains is basically asking for death. On-chain data is the real key. With 3.7 billion in options expiring, the bears are playing quite well. The bulls are indeed in a bit of a bind this time. Instead of believing those braggers, it's better to watch the data yourself. It feels like the market still needs to sober up for a while. Inflation is still sticking around, and the liquidity released by rate cuts simply can't flow in. Retail investors are always the ones getting cut. This series of liquidations isn't an accident; it's just the inevitable result of technical factors.

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TokenVelocityTrauma

· 01-19 10:56

Cutting interest rates is really not a magic pill. Last September, it also rose and then fell back. Still hoping to rely on this to win passively is just laughable. Another 120 million liquidation. When will these leverage guys learn? It happens every time. Trust me, don’t be brainwashed by the bull market talk. Focusing on Deribit’s 3.7 billion options is the real deal. With Powell’s term so long and the tax battle still ongoing, the uncertainty is truly remarkable. On-chain data shows the short ratio at 1.2, with a huge willingness to dump. If you keep hyping the bull market, you’ll just get squeezed into a leek. The macro environment is so complex, and some still shout about winning passively every day? It’s time to wake up, everyone. AI concept stocks and government bonds are taking liquidity first. It’s really not the time for the crypto circle to step in.

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ChainWallflower

· 01-19 10:55

Another wave of leverage blow-up, brothers, it's time to wake up --- Can we just win by cutting interest rates? Dream on, liquidity is first absorbed by the US stock market --- Look at these 3.7 billion options and you'll understand, the bears have a plan --- I just want to know how many people are still talking about a bull market story. Does getting slapped in the face not hurt? --- On-chain data is right there, but people still insist on listening to influencers brag. Isn't that just inviting trouble? --- Powell's policies keep jumping back and forth, who dares to go all in? Truly --- The leek pancake is back, who got squished this time? --- 120 million liquidation, is this what you call a "super bull market"? Laughs --- The macro environment is so complicated, yet some still expect rate cuts to save the market. That's just naive

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ApeEscapeArtist

· 01-19 10:53

Interest rate cuts have always been a fantasy; liquidity has long been drained by the US stock market. We can only eat the leftovers. Leverage longs deserve it. Being so crowded and still not cutting losses, a margin call is a wake-up call from heaven. 1.2 billion in margin calls—how many people's dreams have been shattered? It's truly ridiculous to still promote a bull market now. Don't listen to hype when looking at on-chain data; the 3.7 billion in Deribit options expiry is the fuse. This round of decline is a necessary technical correction, not a black swan event. The signs were there long ago.

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MentalWealthHarvester

· 01-19 10:43

Once again, margin calls have exploded, leverage traders are really fierce Cutting interest rates can't save the crypto market; liquidity has been fully absorbed by the US stock market Looking at the data is the real thing, don't listen to those bragging comments Options expiration causing a sell-off, bulls should accept their fate The macro environment is so complex, still want to win by lying down? Dream on A quick look at the chain makes it clear, this wave is an inevitable technical move Rather than being driven by emotions, it's better to stay alert and watch the market Powell's policies are bouncing back and forth, who can stand it? 120 million in liquidation is really brutal, another big harvest for the little guys

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