BTC Price Mystery: Does the $60 billion "Black Gold" Reserve Actually Exist?

Recently, a shocking rumor has surfaced in the crypto community: the Venezuelan regime may have hidden between 600,000 and 660,000 Bitcoins. Based on current BTC prices, this asset could be worth up to $60-67 billion. What does this number imply? As of January 2026, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds over 670,000 BTC, making it the world’s largest corporate holder. If the Venezuelan rumors are true, their Bitcoin reserves would be comparable, accounting for about 3% of the total BTC supply.

But questions arise: does this astronomical amount of wealth really exist? If so, where are these BTC stored?

How did the rumors originate: three secret fund flows

To understand why such bold speculation exists, we need to trace the three possible Bitcoin accumulation paths of the Venezuelan regime. It should be noted that the following analysis is based on publicly available reports and multi-source intelligence estimates.

First route: The “legacy” left by the Petro scam

In 2018, facing US sanctions, Venezuela launched the world’s first national cryptocurrency—the Petro. Officially, it raised $735 million on the first day, with a total fundraising goal of $6 billion. However, investigations revealed major flaws from the start: initially claimed to be based on Ethereum, later changed to NEM, and finally operated on a private chain that doesn’t exist. The supposed oil backing was also a paper tiger—field inspections found the mining infrastructure dilapidated with no signs of production.

Although this project failed, it inadvertently created a massive money laundering tool: Sunacrip (the National Superintendency of Crypto Assets). This agency was granted full authority to regulate crypto transactions, issue mining licenses, and operate national mining pools. In January 2024, the regime officially shut down the Petro project, completing a strategic shift—from a crypto issuer to a Bitcoin holder, moving towards globally liquid BTC and USDT.

Second route: The $21 billion mystery in oil exports

The core source of Bitcoin reserves may point to mysterious cash flows of the state oil company PDVSA. After US sanctions in 2019, this energy giant faced difficulties. To survive, PDVSA launched an “anti-blockade” plan:

• Using invisible oil tankers to ship crude to Asian refineries;
• Concealing oil sources through shell companies in the UAE, Russia, and elsewhere;
• Unable to receive USD wire transfers, intermediaries were asked to pay in USDT—allowing Venezuela to receive international oil trade payments via crypto channels.

A turning point occurred in March 2023. An internal audit revealed the “PDVSA-Crypto scandal”: between 2020 and 2023, approximately $21 billion in oil receivables mysteriously disappeared.

The destination of this huge sum remains unknown. Intelligence analysts speculate that part of it may have flowed into regime-controlled wallets through automated crypto laundering processes—receiving USDT, obfuscating traces via mixers, exchanging for Bitcoin on OTC desks in Russia, and finally storing in cold wallets. The system was designed by former Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami and regime “financial diplomat” Alex Saab. El Aissami was arrested for corruption; Saab was exchanged in 2023 for 10 American detainees—this “high-price ransom” hints at his control over the financial lifeline.

Third route: Militarized “zero-cost” mining empire

Venezuela has some of the cheapest electricity in the world, mainly supplied by the Guri Dam. The regime, through the military business arm CAMIMPEG (Mining, Oil, and Gas Military Corporation), established the “Bolivarian Army Digital Asset Production Center.” These military mining farms enjoy privileges: prioritized power supply during nationwide outages, guarded by the National Guard, with actual electricity costs near zero.

But where did these mining machines come from? Most were confiscated from private mining farms. Starting in 2020, the regime, in collaboration with the military, launched a series of raids—seizing 315 Antminer S9s in 2020, confiscating large quantities from gangs in 2023, and in 2024, during an operation in Maracay, over 2,300 Antminer S19J Pro units. These devices were not destroyed but redeployed to military farms. Estimates suggest that the thousands of machines confiscated between 2020-2025, combined with the cooperation of state-owned farms, could have produced tens of thousands of BTC.

600,000 BTC: How credible is this number?

The circulating figure of 600,000–660,000 BTC comes from intelligence reports by the organization “Whale Hunting.” But a crucial question remains: this is only an estimate based on human intelligence, not confirmed by blockchain analysis.

In other words:

• It is not backed by traceable blockchain data;
• No on-chain evidence supports this claim;
• The report explicitly states it is “unverified.”

From a logical perspective, what supports or questions this?

Proponents argue: Strategy holds over 670,000 BTC, proving an institution can accumulate such a quantity; the PDVSA $21 billion scandal provides a substantial funding source; even conservatively, if 50% of that was converted into Bitcoin, it would be enough to buy 300,000–400,000 BTC.

Skeptics argue: If 600,000 BTC truly existed, there should be traces on the blockchain, but no specific addresses have been identified; the “600,000” figure seems more like an estimate than an exact count, possibly inflated; and this rumor could be used for political propaganda or market hype.

The most objective conclusion at present is: this remains an unconfirmed rumor on the blockchain.

If true, who holds the private keys?

Assuming the rumor is accurate, Maduro’s arrest does not necessarily mean the US can control these assets. The FBI’s primary challenge is: how to prove the existence of the Bitcoin and how to access the private keys?

Intelligence suggests that these assets are unlikely managed by a single account; more likely, they are protected by multi-signature schemes or secret sharing. Potential key holders include:

Alex Saab: As the financial architect, he likely has full visibility of the fund flows and may possess recovery seed phrases or physical hardware wallets.

Nicolasito (Maduro’s son): Deeply involved in illegal mining and power operations, possibly holding family backups of private keys.

Cilia Flores (First Lady): A core figure in the regime, potentially controlling physical access to cold wallets.

Technical officials: Former Sunacrip technicians maintaining multi-signature setups; even if they don’t hold the full private key, their cooperation is crucial for re-establishing access.

Most likely, a M-of-N scheme (e.g., 3/5 or 5/7) is used, requiring signatures from multiple key holders to move funds. But the reality is more complex: cold wallets could be dispersed across Caracas vaults, Russian safes, or Cuban safe houses; systems may have “dead man’s switches” that transfer funds if no activity occurs over time; even with lifetime imprisonment, key holders might refuse to disclose private keys.

Three market scenarios

600,000 BTC, representing about 3% of total supply, has become a sword of Damocles over the market.

Scenario 1: The rumor is false

If FBI and blockchain analysis confirm that the “shadow reserves” do not exist or are grossly overestimated, the market may breathe a sigh of relief. No potential sell-off pressure exists, and the impact on prices would be neutral or slightly positive.

Scenario 2: The US successfully seizes the assets

If these assets exist and are controlled by the US, they would enter judicial freeze, possibly for years. This would lock up a huge supply, reducing circulating volume. For reference, the FBI’s seizure of 170,000 BTC from Silk Road in 2013 temporarily removed those coins from circulation, easing market selling pressure.

Scenario 3: Private keys are lost or inaccessible

This is the most dangerous scenario. If the assets exist but the private keys are not under US control, regime factions on the run might attempt OTC sales to raise funds for escape. This could trigger panic selling. Comparing to the German government selling 50,000 BTC in 2024, a 600,000 BTC dump would be catastrophic.

Confirmed facts vs. unverified rumors

Maduro’s arrest indeed reveals a glimpse of how the Venezuelan regime has used cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions. Confirmed facts include: the failure of the Petro experiment, the PDVSA-Crypto scandal involving $21 billion, and the regime’s large-scale confiscation of private mining equipment and shift toward military mining.

But unverified rumors include: whether they truly accumulated 600,000 BTC, who holds the private keys, and whether these Bitcoins will enter the market.

At current prices of $93,010 per BTC, with a market cap of $1.858 trillion, if 600,000 BTC were to flood the market, the impact would be enormous. But until more on-chain evidence emerges, this story of “black gold” remains a speculative rumor.