Raoul Pal on the macro cycle: Why will cryptocurrencies reach a new high in 2026?

At the Solana Breakpoint Conference, Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision and former Goldman Sachs executive, shared his in-depth thoughts on the global economy and the crypto markets. This well-known macro investor made a disruptive judgment — the current crypto cycle may be severely underestimated.

The Population Crisis Is Reshaping the Global Economy

Raoul Pal first pointed out an overlooked long-term trend: the global labor force is continuously declining. This sounds like a cold demographic issue, but it is actually the key to controlling the entire economic cycle.

A shrinking population directly leads to a consequence — the debt-to-GDP ratio cannot be reversed and continues to rise. This is nothing new; central banks around the world have been entangled with this problem for years. The issue is, when your denominator (labor force) is shrinking, but the numerator (debt) is expanding, this contradiction must eventually be resolved somehow.

Central Banks Are Forced to Implement Large-Scale Liquidity Injections

The traditional solution to this dilemma is: printing money. Raoul Pal predicts that in the next 12 months, global central banks will need to create about $8 trillion in new money supply through liquidity injections. This is not conspiracy theory; it is an almost unavoidable outcome under the current debt framework.

The Federal Reserve has already begun reassessing its balance sheet and is contemplating how to systematically “monetize” this ever-growing debt. The process has just begun and is far from over.

The Crypto Cycle Is Being Redefined: From 4 Years to 5 Years

Raoul Pal’s core view is this: many investors are still using old thinking to view the crypto market — based on the Bitcoin halving cycle of 4 years. But reality is more complex.

What truly drives crypto asset prices are deeper debt maturity cycles and macro liquidity environments. In this new 5-year cycle framework, we have already passed the bottom. The current position is early in the upward phase.

According to this timeline, the peak of the crypto cycle should occur around the end of 2026, rather than the 2025 many expect. This means the real bull market may just be entering an acceleration phase.

The Altcoin Opportunity Window Is Opening

Raoul Pal pointed out that the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin (cross exchange rate) follows its own business cycle pattern. Currently, this cycle appears to be bottoming out rather than peaking. For investors waiting for altcoin season, this could be a key signal.

Cryptocurrencies Are Essentially Macro Assets

This is Raoul Pal’s most important insight: do not see cryptocurrencies as purely technological innovations or speculative tools, but understand that they are macro assets — a hedge against global currency devaluation and debt monetization.

Against the backdrop of continuous liquidity injections by central banks and rising debt levels, the allocation logic of crypto assets becomes clearer. The bull market peak at the end of 2026 is not accidental but determined by the intrinsic logic of the global macro cycle.