Bitcoin Faces a Historic Turning Point: End of the Four-Year Cycle or Evolution into a New Stage

**The Shocking Reality of 2025**

As 2025 comes to a close, market participants are confronting a historic fact. Currently trading around $92.75K, BTC has recorded an 11.23% decline compared to the beginning of last year, marking its first annual negative performance post-halving. This movement deviates significantly from previous patterns, raising a fundamental question across the market: "Is the four-year cycle truly over?"

**The Gap Between Expectations and Reality**

Since the halving in April 2024, Bitcoin has followed an expected trajectory. In October, it hit an all-time high of $126.08K, attracting intense attention from both institutional and individual investors. However, subsequent developments have been markedly different. The decline from the peak exceeded 30%, and the strength seen throughout the year has dissipated.

Looking back at past cycles, after the halving in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin achieved new all-time highs the following year. The fact that this "possibly" did not happen in this cycle has caused significant ripples in the market.

**Conflicting Perspectives**

Some bullish analysts declare the complete end of the four-year cycle. Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, asserts that the decline after the halving confirms that "the four-year cycle has officially died." Investor Armando Pantoja points to fundamental changes in market structure, noting that with ETF approvals, institutional capital, and corporate balance sheet entries, the market has moved away from retail-driven sentiment, increasing dependence on macroeconomic variables such as liquidity, interest rates, regulations, and geopolitical factors.

On the other hand, researchers with different viewpoints argue otherwise. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, claims that the four-year cycle itself has not disappeared. He suggests that instead of being governed by a single factor like "programmed halving," a more complex and layered mechanism may be unfolding, leading to a new form of cycle.

**Market Questions**

Discussions about Bitcoin’s long-term structure are likely to continue. Has the traditional four-year cycle truly ended, or is it transforming into a new form as the market evolves? The answer to this question will gradually become clearer through future market developments.