The escalation of US-European trade confrontation: how do macro risks affect Bitcoin and crypto asset pricing?

【Blockchain Rhythm】 Recently, the trade tensions between Europe and the United States have escalated again. On January 19, the U.S. President threatened that if European countries do not agree to purchase Greenland-related agreements, tariffs will be imposed on goods from Denmark, Germany, France, the UK, and other eight countries starting from February, with the rate possibly rising to 25% by June. This move immediately angered the EU, and several member states responded firmly, calling it economic coercion.

The EU’s countermeasures were also swift. They are evaluating retaliatory tariffs on approximately €93 billion worth of American goods, and are even considering activating the “Counter-Coercion Tool” to restrict American companies’ market access within the EU. France and Germany took the strongest stance, stating that Europe will not compromise on sovereignty issues; Denmark, while still attempting to maintain dialogue, also explicitly rejected tariff coercion.

From a macro perspective, this is no longer just a trade conflict. The U.S. is tightly bundling tariffs, geopolitical issues, and sovereignty concerns into a new policy tool. If the confrontation between Europe and the U.S. truly escalates, global trade confidence will be severely impacted, inflation pressures and supply chain uncertainties will increase, and the impact on all risk assets will be evident.

At the market level, in the short term, worsening relations between Europe and the U.S. will boost risk aversion, and volatility in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries may rise simultaneously. In the medium term, if the EU truly initiates retaliation, the market will reprice the risk of global trade fragmentation. In the long term, the key question is whether “tariff politicization” will become the new normal—this will directly determine the flow of global capital and risk appetite.

What is the implication for the crypto market? When macro uncertainties expand, Bitcoin’s narrative as a “non-sovereign asset” is often reinforced. But ultimately, the performance depends on market confidence in the stability of the traditional financial system—once people start believing that fiat currencies and bonds face risks, capital will flow more into alternative assets like Bitcoin.