The vast majority of investors cannot distinguish between a "good company" and a "good investment."

This is why the money you make in a bull market can evaporate out of thin air in a bear market. AI is turning business into a "negative-sum game"—this is not alarmism, but mathematics inevitability.

Here are 6 cold truths about survival, shorting bubbles, and cycle management.

1. Price Supremacy: Even garbage is golden if the price is right
The fundamental principle of investing has been completely forgotten. Great companies combined with the wrong price lead to disaster. Conversely, companies abandoned by the market, as long as the price is low enough, are perfect targets.

Valuation = Story + Numbers. Only looking at Excel makes you an accountant; only listening to stories makes you a gambler. Alpha returns come from the ability to translate "technological narratives" into "discounted cash flows."

2. The Harsh Truth About AI: The Invisible Profit Killer
Everyone is betting that AI will skyrocket profits, but the logic is exactly the opposite: AI will become a "infrastructure tax" that companies must pay.

It's like SAT prep classes: skipping class will cause you to fail, everyone attending gives no advantage, but everyone's costs rise. AI will not expand profit margins; it will squeeze them. When the net present value (NPV) turns negative, the celebration will end.

3. Corporate Lifecycle: Beware the "plastic surgery" middle-aged
How to identify management that destroys value? Watch if they are "pretending to be young." When Apple starts buybacks and dividends, it is a respected cash cow. When mature companies pursue growth through aggressive acquisitions and blindly chase AI, they are like middle-aged people wearing tight clothes—this "refusal to age" struggle is often the beginning of capital allocation disasters.

4. The Art of Selling: Anti-human mechanical discipline
Buying is difficult; selling is ten times harder. Don’t rely on willpower; rely on Monte Carlo Simulations (Monte Carlo Simulations). Don’t look at target prices; look at the value distribution range.

· Buy: Price below value by 25%

· Sell: Price above value by 25%

When the trigger line is hit, execute like a machine. Without proactively freeing up positions, when black swans appear, you only hold old chips.

5. Autopilot Strategy (Autopilot)
Current market: extremely crowded, extremely expensive. Real estate and cryptocurrencies are highly correlated, losing their hedging function. The only strategy: deprive yourself of "timing" power. Set mechanical investments every 3 months to avoid being driven by fear.

6. Traps in the Private Market
The most lucrative dividends have been exhausted by the primary market. Unicorns are already worth hundreds of billions at IPO. What remains for the secondary market is often low growth in mature stages and enormous monetization pressure.