Bitcoin reaches its highest historical undervaluation compared to gold

2026-01-18 03:26:55

Source: CritpoTendencia Original Title: Bitcoin reaches its highest historical undervaluation against gold Original Link: Bitcoin has just signaled something never seen before in its entire history against gold. While the precious metal celebrates new all-time highs, BTC is at its largest relative discount ever recorded.

The key indicator is the BTC/XAU Z-score, which just dropped below -2, a level never before reached. In simple terms: Bitcoin is extremely cheap relative to gold.

This type of divergence does not appear at any point in the cycle. It usually occurs when the market is poorly positioned, the consensus is defensive, and capital has not yet rotated.

What happened the last times this signal appeared

Recent history shows that every time Bitcoin reached an extreme undervaluation against gold, the subsequent move was decisive.

March 2020: after the global collapse, gold led the defensive move and Bitcoin lagged behind. Then came a rally of +1,170%.
Late 2022: amid post-FTX pessimism, the BTC/gold ratio returned to extreme levels. In the following 12 months, Bitcoin rose about 150%.

In both cases, the pattern was the same: gold leads first, absorbs defensive flows, and when its momentum slows down, Bitcoin begins a phase of aggressive outperformance.

The Bitcoin-Gold ratio and the cycle timing

The historical chart shows something key: the most violent parabolic movements of Bitcoin do not coincide with the gold peak, but start afterward.

This is not about a specific price call, but about a cycle relationship. When gold has already fulfilled its role as a safe haven and Bitcoin remains lagging, rotation tends to be abrupt.

A rare signal

The BTC/XAU Z-score breaking below -2 is not an everyday signal. It is a statistical anomaly reflecting an extreme imbalance between the two assets.

Historically, these moments do not last long. When they correct, they do so quickly and forcefully.

Right now, the market’s message is clear: Bitcoin is cheaper against gold than ever before. And every time this has happened, the next chapter was anything but quiet.

BTC0,03%

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