#Gate广场创作者新春激励 Three Major Transformations in the Crypto Market, New Trends in 2026

Deep shifts behind recent market volatility:
Transformation One: Fundamental change in market structure - end of the retail-driven speculative cycle, emergence of the institutional era:
• Net Bitcoin inflow to exchanges drops to a three-year low, indicating short-term speculators are leaving.
• Continued Bitcoin outflows from exchanges, with a daily net flow of 14,484 BTC.
• The market shifts from a retail-led cycle to liquidity distribution among institutions.
Profound shift in market narrative:
• From mere store of value to a multi-functional application platform.
• Functional assets (like ETH) are beginning to show long-term potential beyond Bitcoin.
• The ETH/BTC price rise is starting to take shape, with structural advantages emerging.
Transformation Two: Comprehensive Regulatory Storm - Compliance becomes the minimum for survival, and an intensive global regulatory framework is being implemented:
• Accelerating the legislation of the US Clarity Law, defining legal boundaries.
• Initiating a joint regulation system between CRS and CARF, integrating crypto assets into "financial accounts" for oversight.
• China will implement in 2026 the "Three Filters" mechanism: entry licensing, compliance review, and law enforcement coordination.
Tightening regulatory red lines:
• Off-platform transactions, financing schemes, and "distributions" via mass calls are considered criminal offenses.
• The risk of individuals participating in crypto trading exceeds 90%.
• Increasing withholding tax in Italy from 26% to 33%, and removing the tax exemption threshold at 2000 euros.
Transformation Three: Liquidity Expansion - Macroeconomic environment trends toward easing, and the global liquidity turning point has arrived:
• Expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, increased bank loans, and falling mortgage rates.
• The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in 2026 rising to high levels.
• The Chinese central bank continues its "moderate easing" policy, with flexible use of reserve reduction tools and rate cuts.
Return of institutional entry:
• Recent rebound in Bitcoin ETFs, up about 8% over the past week.
• Major companies like Bitmine Immersion continue increasing ETH reserves.
• The annualized rate of stablecoin settlement amounts via Visa reaches $4.5 billion, with monthly demand increasing.
Transformation Four: Accelerating Technological Innovation - Expanding Ethereum’s fortress, highlighting Ethereum’s technological advantages:
• The mainnet expansion plan will increase processing capacity tenfold, supporting a target price of $4,000.
• Still dominant in stablecoins, RWA tokens, and DeFi.
• Long-term outlook predicts the price rising to $40,000, with broad recognition of its potential to surpass Bitcoin.
Development of the Digital Yuan environment:
• From "Version 1.0 of Digital Cash" to "Version 2.0 of the Wallet Currency."
• Bank wallet balances accrue interest based on the current deposit rate and are included in the deposit insurance system.
• Trading volume is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan in 2026.
Investment signals and risk warnings
Three confirmed paths:
1. Staying compliant - continued tightening of regulatory red lines, compliance is the minimum for survival.
2. Realism rising - reassessing the value of functional assets.
3. Institutional trend - increasing control over supply by long-term investors.
Major risks:
• Significant increase in tax complexity and compliance costs.
• Decrease in the value of small investments, raising market thresholds.
• Complete closure of cross-border tax evasion routes, leaving no loopholes for oversight.