Bitcoin dominance slows down: Is an altcoin safe haven forming?

Technical Topic: The About-to-Break Falling Wedge Model

Bitcoin's dominance index is being “pinned” within an extremely clear falling wedge structure. Sellers are continuously lowering highs, while buyers maintain the support line at the bottom. This tension is building pressure to find an exit.

Any breakout above the wedge resistance will trigger an explosive move, activating capital flow from safer assets into high-beta coins. Forecasts suggest that the market share of the outside-the-top-10 group could increase from the current 7.09% to 16.24% — this increase follows the parabola area formula in exponential growth models of the market.

Money Flow Not Keeping Up with Price: Warning Signs

In early 2025, Bitcoin experienced a strong price rally, but trading volume did not keep pace. This divergence reflects a notable trend: capital is rotating to take profits rather than accumulating new BTC.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin's trading market share has decreased from 45-50% to about 56.40% (based on actual data). Meanwhile, altcoins are dominating most trading activity, with volume exceeding 55% and many sessions approaching 60-65%.

This is not just short-term speculation. Investors are actively shifting capital, trading more frequently, and committing longer-term to alternative assets. Increased risk appetite, higher leverage use, and strategies based on “market stories” have become key tools driving the strong rise of altcoins.

Ethereum: Modest Growth but Hidden Pressure

Ethereum has recorded a trading volume increase of 20-30%, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $475.57M. The number of Ethereum addresses has steadily increased from 300 million to 370 million (currently 454,576,150 addresses), reflecting natural adoption rather than FOMO waves.

However, Ethereum's weakness lies in the number of active daily addresses — this figure has grown much more slowly compared to the total wallet count. As a result, many wallets remain “dormant,” preventing trading volume from breaking out to its maximum potential.

Despite benefiting from an expanding ecosystem and scaling solutions, Ethereum has not yet absorbed all the speculative capital flowing into small-cap altcoins.

BNB Chain and Solana: Different Sustainable Usage Models

BNB Chain tells a completely different story. With 273,476,350 addresses and the highest daily active user count, BNB Chain maintains high trading volume ($5.53M/24h) while keeping transaction fees low.

Solana (24h volume $84.43M), Tron, and NEAR (24h volume $4.70M) demonstrate notable stability. Activity on these networks remains steady over time, neither spiking nor collapsing, helping trading volume stay consistent.

On-Chain Data Reveals the Truth

On-chain data paints a clear contrasting picture: wallet growth rate is not keeping pace with actual usage. This discrepancy directly impacts trading volume.

FOMO can create new wallets, but only real usage generates sustainable volume. Frequent trading creates deeper liquidity and improves capital turnover speed — signs of genuine utility, not just speculation.

What to Watch Next

For the altcoin trend to continue rising, the market needs to maintain abundant liquidity and positive sentiment. Any macro shocks or sharp Bitcoin volatility could quickly reverse the trend.

Investors should closely monitor the relative shifts in trading volume, the divergence between Bitcoin's price and volume, and the increasingly important role of Ethereum in balancing capital flows. The wedge is tightening — a breakout is not far off, and when it happens, the market will not be quiet.