Arabica Coffee Price Today: Supply Forecasts and Weather Pressures Shape Market Direction

Production Outlook Signals Mixed Signals for Arabica Coffee Prices

Global coffee production is set to reach unprecedented levels in 2025/26, according to projections from the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service released on December 18. Total output is forecasted at 178.848 million bags, representing a 2% increase year-over-year. However, this headline figure masks divergent trends between the two main coffee varieties. While robusta production is anticipated to surge 10.9% to 83.333 million bags, arabica coffee output is expected to contract by 4.7%, declining to 95.515 million bags. This imbalance has significant implications for arabica coffee price today and near-term trading dynamics.

Brazil’s production trajectory is particularly noteworthy. As the world’s leading arabica supplier, Brazil’s projected output will decrease by 3.1% to 63 million bags during 2025/26. In contrast, Vietnam—the dominant robusta producer—is forecasted to increase production by 6.2% to 30.8 million bags, marking its highest output in four years. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) suggested in October that favorable weather conditions could push Vietnam’s 2025/26 crop an additional 10% higher than the prior season.

Near-Term Price Drivers: Weather and Currency Effects

Recent arabica coffee price movements reflect immediate supply pressures and environmental factors. March contracts for arabica coffee (KCH26) have climbed 3.7%, gaining 13.30 points, while March ICE robusta coffee (RMH26) has risen 1.61%, advancing 63 points. These gains have propelled arabica prices to their highest level in four weeks.

The underlying catalyst stems from Brazil’s primary arabica-growing region, Minas Gerais, which experienced drought-like conditions. According to Somar Meteorologia, the region received only 47.9 mm of rainfall during the week ending January 2—representing just 67% of its historical average. Compounding this weather headwind, the Brazilian real has strengthened to a one-month peak against the US dollar, making exports less attractive to Brazilian growers and providing additional support to arabica coffee prices today.

Inventory Dynamics and Export Patterns

Global coffee inventories have shown volatility, creating both upward and downward pressure on prices. ICE-monitored arabica stocks dropped to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags as of November 20, before rebounding to 456,477 bags by December 24. Similarly, robusta inventories hit a one-year low of 4,012 lots on December 10, later recovering to 4,278 lots by late December.

Vietnam’s export surge has partially offset tight inventory concerns. The National Statistics Office of Vietnam reported that coffee exports for 2025 increased 17.5% year-over-year, reaching 1.58 million metric tons. Conversely, US import dynamics have shifted due to tariff policy changes. Between August and October—when steep tariffs on Brazilian coffee remained in effect—US imports of Brazilian coffee plummeted 52% compared to the prior year, totaling 983,970 bags. Although tariffs have since been moderated, US coffee inventories remain constrained.

Long-Term Supply Outlook

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October to September) declined 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags, signaling potential tightening in worldwide supplies. Looking ahead, ending stocks for 2025/26 are predicted to fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, compared to 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab raised its 2025 harvest estimate by 2.4% on December 4, projecting 56.54 million bags—up from the September forecast of 55.20 million bags. This upward revision suggests some recovery potential, though production remains below prior-year levels. Vietnam’s continued expansion in robusta cultivation adds complexity to the arabica coffee price today environment, as increased robusta supply may limit overall coffee price appreciation despite arabica’s supply constraints.

The convergence of supply-side tightening, weather pressures in major growing regions, and currency fluctuations underscores the multifaceted nature of current arabica coffee price dynamics.