Presidential Election in Portugal: Meet the Candidates in the January 18th Race

MysteriousZhang · 2026-01-15T22:16:29+00:00

The Portuguese elections on January 18th have 11 candidates, highlighting high competitiveness. Projections indicate a 99% chance of a runoff on February 8th, with five main candidates in a fierce contest.

MysteriousZhang

2026-01-15 22:16:29

Abstract generation in progress

The Portuguese head to the polls on January 18 to determine who will be the next Head of State. The election stands out for its record number of participants: 11 presidential candidates, reflecting a scenario of heightened political dispersion in the country. The outlook indicates a highly competitive campaign, with a high likelihood of a runoff.

High Uncertainty Scenario

According to projections from Estimador.pt, which processes data from multiple polls and simulates various electoral scenarios, there is a 99% probability that the election will go to a second round, scheduled for February 8. The analysis of the simulations reveals that the real contest is concentrated around five politicians, with very narrow margins between them.

The Favorites in the Race

According to statistical projections that combine recent polls and model thousands of possible scenarios:

André Ventura (Chega) remains with a 69% chance of advancing to the second stage
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD/CDS-PP) has a 48% probability
Henrique Gouveia e Melo (independent) has a 42% chance
António José Seguro (PS) reaches 34%
João Cotrim de Figueiredo (Iniciativa Liberal) registers 7%

What the Most Recent Polls Show

The most updated survey, conducted by Pitagórica between January 4 and 6 for CNN Portugal, TVI, TSF, and Jornal de Notícias, presents a picture of intense competition among the main presidential candidates. With a margin of error of ±4.06 percentage points, the numbers reveal:

António José Seguro (PS) – 21.0%
André Ventura (Chega) – 19.6%
João Cotrim de Figueiredo (Iniciativa Liberal) – 18.0%
Henrique Gouveia e Melo (independent) – 17.2%
Luís Marques Mendes (PSD/CDS-PP) – 16.0%
Catarina Martins (Bloco de Esquerda) – 3.3%
António Filipe (PCP) – 2.7%
Manuel João Vieira (independent) – 1.0%
Jorge Pinto (Liberal) – 0.7%
Others – 0.5%

An Open and Unpredictable Race

The numbers demonstrate that the top five candidates are technically tied, reinforcing the open and uncertain nature of the election. The political fragmentation observed in voting intentions reflects the complexity of the Portuguese electoral landscape at this moment, where no candidate can build a comfortable margin before voting. The presidential race is genuinely competitive, with an open result until the day of decision.

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