Institutional recovery and bullish signals converge: Bitcoin eyes $100,000

Massive ETF Bitcoin inflows and decreasing selling pressure create bullish confluence towards $100,000

Last week brought encouraging news for Bitcoin bulls. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net inflows of $697.25 million, marking the largest capital flow in a single day since October 2025. This uptick in institutional demand occurs just as other technical indicators converge to support an upward move.

By the end of this week, BTC is trading at $97.04K, with a gain of 1.88% in the last 24 hours. Although this represents a recovery from the low of $93,250 registered days ago, the main challenge remains regaining the psychological level of $100,000, where unprecedented options activity is concentrated.

Derivatives positioning reveals renewed demand confidence

The options market is telling a compelling story: the bearish positioning that dominated during the fourth quarter decline is being replaced by bullish bets. According to Bloomberg, open interest in Bitcoin options is primarily concentrated in contracts expiring on January 30 with a strike price of $100,000.

What’s notable is the magnitude. The total notional value of these call positions exceeds twice that of the next most traded contracts, which are put options with a strike price of $80,000 at the same expiry. This disproportion suggests that professional traders are actively positioning for a bullish scenario, not a defensive one.

Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, explained that although position sizes are not extreme, the direction has been consistent. More importantly, put option premiums across the entire curve have decreased significantly, reflecting lower demand for downside hedges. This metric starkly contrasts with the panic period at the end of 2025, when massive selling in spot markets coincided with a surge in demand for downside protections.

Coins leaving exchanges strengthen the price base

An equally important phenomenon is occurring in centralized exchange balances. Approximately 12,946 BTC were withdrawn in the last 24 hours, with an estimated value close to one billion two hundred million dollars. This withdrawal trend has characterized the past week.

When coins leave exchanges without being sold immediately, the available supply for trading decreases. Greg Magadini, derivatives director at Amberdata, notes that this limited supply dynamic facilitates price support during periods of high demand. In other words, the lack of Bitcoin available on exchanges creates a firmer price floor.

The technical path to $106,000 requires confirmation

Satraj Bambra, CEO of the hybrid exchange Rails, offers a cautious but potentially bullish perspective. A new test of the $100,000 to $106,000 range remains viable, he warned. However, this alone does not confirm a long-term trend reversal.

The critical requirement is for Bitcoin to recover and hold levels above $106,000 on a weekly basis. Only with that confirmation would a new push toward all-time highs be technically supported. Before that, analysts see $105,000 as a probable resistance level where traders might take profits.

Macroeconomic context favors defensive assets

Bitcoin does not move in isolation. Gold has reached all-time highs, and stock markets have been supported by strength in the tech sector. This risk appetite environment benefits alternative assets.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has lagged behind precious metals in recent performance, creating what Magadini describes as opportunities to buy longer-term call options. The combination of institutional recovery, reduced supply on exchanges, and changing options sentiment suggests the market is positioning for a faster move through the $90,000 range if momentum continues.

For now, traders are monitoring whether these three converging forces — ETF inflows, reduced supply dynamics, and bullish derivatives repositioning — can sustain the recovery toward the $100,000 target and beyond.