Gold Market Assessment: Attempts to Restore Stability Amid US Employment Indicators Watch - January 9, 2026

Current Gold Price Situation

The gold market is experiencing volatile movements during today’s Friday session, as the precious metal faces conflicting influences from multiple factors. The spot gold price has decreased by approximately 0.2% to trade within the range of $4,469 per ounce according to the latest market updates, but it maintains weekly gains exceeding 3%, reflecting strong upward momentum on a broader scale.

Meanwhile, February futures contracts for gold have risen slightly to approach $4,477, indicating ongoing debate between buying and selling forces in the market.

Key Market Drivers

Impact of the Continued Strength of the US Dollar

The US dollar continues to rise against a basket of global currencies, driven by clear political factors. The market anticipates a decision from the US Supreme Court regarding the president’s authority to impose tariffs, which has boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe haven.

This increase in the dollar’s value makes dollar-priced assets more expensive for buyers dealing in other currencies, negatively affecting short-term global demand for gold. However, the impact extends beyond purely economic factors to include a psychological element that encourages investors to reallocate their portfolios toward dollar-denominated assets.

Federal Reserve Officials’ Statements and Their Effects

Recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Stephen Miran, indicating a possibility of a 150 basis point cut in interest rates during 2026, have created uncertainty in the market.

Such expectations enhance the medium-term appeal of gold, as it is an asset that does not generate direct yields, and its opportunity cost decreases when interest rates decline. However, conflicting opinions among other Fed members create ambiguity regarding the timing and actual size of the cuts, forcing the market to weigh multiple scenarios simultaneously.

US Economic Growth Outlook

Fitch Ratings has raised its forecast for US GDP growth, highlighting the resilience of the US economy despite relative slowdown in some labor market sectors. This stance reflects a delicate balance, as data suggests the underlying economy is not weak enough to prompt the Federal Reserve to implement sharp monetary easing.

This scenario reduces some arguments supporting increased demand for safe-haven assets, but gold remains favored in global uncertainty environments.

Global Geopolitical Environment

Tensions continue in various regions around the world, especially in the Middle East and the South China Sea, prompting investors to seek safe assets. This turbulent environment boosts demand for gold as a safe haven, supporting prices despite short-term technical pressures.

Chart Analysis and Technical Indicators

Gold’s current movement reflects a corrective phase after strong gains at the end of last week. The price tested a support zone near $4,430 - $4,420 after breaking out of the narrow range confined between $4,455 and $4,491, a break indicating a depletion of buying momentum without changing the overall trend.

Momentum Indicators

MACD Indicator: The indicator is moving in a bearish direction with a negative crossover above the zero line, confirming a shift from momentum building to short-term depletion.

Relative Strength Index (RSI): Trading around levels 50-60, representing a neutral zone that indicates ongoing selling pressure without entering oversold territory.

Important Price Levels

Resistance Levels:

• $4,570
• $4,640
• $4,700

Support Levels:

• $4,370
• $4,290
• $4,220

Upcoming Events and Their Impacts

US Employment Data

The US December 2025 employment report is expected to be released today, and it is considered one of the most important indicators for assessing labor market health and future monetary policy directions. This report will directly influence the Fed’s expectations regarding the path of interest rates.

Federal Reserve Official Statements

Thomas Barkin, a Federal Reserve Board member, is expected to make statements later today that may clarify monetary policy directions, with potential impacts on gold from any signals regarding tightening or easing.

Consumer Confidence Index

The consumer expectations index is expected to be released today, and a decline typically boosts demand for gold as a safe haven.

Future Outlook and Perspectives

Gold is expected to experience a balance between short-term pressures and medium-term supportive factors. Major banks’ forecasts suggest that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce during the first half of 2026, driven by geopolitical risks and rising global debt levels.

Some large financial institutions have lowered their average annual forecast to $4,587 per ounce, but they anticipate a wide trading range between $3,950 and $5,050 during 2026, with potential price corrections if geopolitical risks diminish.

RBC and Other Analytical Perspectives

Analyses from major financial institutions like Morgan Stanley indicate that gold retains the potential to rise and reach key resistance levels near $4,800 per ounce, as long as fundamental factors continue to support this trend.

Analysts emphasize that any current declines are healthy corrections within a long-term bullish trajectory, especially given the ongoing need for effective hedging tools in a high-risk, uncertain global environment.

Recommended Trading Strategy

Based on technical and fundamental analysis, it is advised to focus on selective buying from support zones near $4,370-$4,290, with strict risk management.

Selling remains a tactical, short-term approach during weak rebounds below resistance levels, until the price regains stability above $4,491.95 and confirms a strong bullish momentum.