Looking back at the last cycle that truly changed the productivity structure—

👉 Nasdaq from 1996 to 2003 (blue line),
In the last 6 months before the bubble peaked, the index surged by 100%.
Note:
This is not the starting point of the bubble,
but the stage where the bubble proved itself.
And now the Nasdaq (white line),
is following a path that is extremely familiar:

In terms of trend: it has entered the overlapping zone of 1998–2000

In terms of narrative: it is also built on a genuine productivity revolution

In terms of sentiment: divergences are disappearing, skeptics are fewer,
the market is beginning to move into a state of—**“Assume it will succeed”**

So, there is only one question left:
Are we now in 1998, or 2000?
If it’s 1998,
that means—
there’s still a period ahead
of the most exhilarating, most irresistible, and also the easiest to ruin risk discipline market.
If it’s 2000,
then it’s the last lesson the bubble leaves for the market.

The real danger has never been “whether there is a bubble,”
but—
when everyone stops talking about the bubble.