2026-01-07 01:32:02

Prediction markets have been extremely popular in the past two years, but along with that come issues. These platforms claim to be powerful tools for obtaining information, but what’s the reality? A bunch of people are betting on real-world events, from politics to celebrity gossip—daring to gamble on anything.

It sounds cool, but there are many hidden risks. First is the issue of access—who can participate? Regional restrictions and KYC requirements vary widely. Next is the integrity of the market—can large players manipulate prices? Does information asymmetry exist? Plus, with regulatory vacuum, who will back the bets if something goes wrong?

Prediction markets are inherently good—they aggregate dispersed information and help discover true probabilities. That’s undeniable. But when they turn into gambling platforms, especially for betting on major real-world events, things get complicated. Fairness of market access, transparency of transaction data, and protection of participants’ interests—all need to be addressed. Otherwise, even the most innovative ideas won’t go far. Regulators and platform operators must clarify the rules of the game as soon as possible.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

17 Likes

Reward
17
8
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

Web3ExplorerLin

· 19h ago

hypothesis: prediction markets are essentially oracle networks trying to bridge subjective reality with on-chain consensus... but the architecture's fundamentally broken rn? like, we're asking centralized gatekeepers (kyc, geo-restrictions) to validate decentralized truth-discovery. that's not a feature, that's a bug.

Reply0

AirdropHunter007

· 01-08 20:51

Basically, it's a casino disguised as a prediction platform, a paradise for big players to harvest retail investors.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeCry

· 01-07 02:00

Basically, it's a casino for big players, and retail investors still have to watch out for themselves.

View OriginalReply0

LiquidityNinja

· 01-07 01:54

Basically, everyone is now playing probabilistic gambling, and genuine information aggregation has instead become a side hustle.

View OriginalReply0

MetaEggplant

· 01-07 01:47

Basically, now you can gamble on anything. Everyone does their own KYC, and big players easily harvest the little guys.

View OriginalReply0

OldLeekConfession

· 01-07 01:43

That's right, this thing is just a casino in disguise now. I played on a certain platform before, and I was directly crushed by big players, losing a lot. It's better to understand the rules before getting in, or else you'll just be a leek for others. Once regulators come, these platforms will probably have to change their appearance. I've long been fed up with that set-up, gambling on everything, and eventually the platform runs away when things go wrong. Damn, I just want to know when it can become truly transparent. Isn't this just another form of pass-the-parcel? It will explode sooner or later.

View OriginalReply0

GasWaster

· 01-07 01:42

Basically, it's a new trick for big players to harvest retail investors, a casino disguised as a prophecy.

View OriginalReply0

AirdropHunterXM

· 01-07 01:41

To be honest, these prediction markets are just casinos now, only disguised as information aggregation. Big players cutting leeks—who cares? The regulatory gap is well understood. There are a bunch of entry barriers, ordinary people are just playing with peanuts, and they still have to worry about platform跑路. However, the point of information aggregation is real; if the rules are properly sorted out, there is still potential. Right now, everyone is acting independently, and trouble will come sooner or later.

View OriginalReply0