DOGE Reversal Truth: The Whale Wars and Investment Traps Behind $0.15🌟🔥🌟

After experiencing over two months of the "False Rebound—Crash" cycle, DOGE finally stabilized in early 2025. Since the temporary low at the end of December, DOGE has risen approximately 33%, marking its strongest rally since November last year. But this time, technical indicators are not the decisive factor—the real game-changer is the silent civil war among whale factions.
Why can the reversal succeed? The answer is not in Japanese candlestick charts but on-chain.
From November 4 to December 31, DOGE continued to hit new lows, but the RSI indicator kept rising, forming a perfect bullish divergence structure. This should have been a reliable reversal signal, but in past instances of similar patterns, the market quickly stalled at the start of the rebound, with gains only between 13% and 17%.
Where is the problem? In holdings.
Mid-sized Whales: From "Rebound and then Crash" to "Stagnation and Holding"
In the previous two failed rebound attempts, "mid-sized whales" holding between one million and ten million DOGE played the role of "market encircler":
• November 25: holdings decreased from 109.1 billion DOGE to 107.2 billion DOGE, market failed to rise
• December 21-22: holdings decreased from 108.6 billion DOGE to 107.9 billion DOGE, rebound failed again
But in the current reversal process, the most powerful force in the market appeared and underwent a significant change. Since December 31, their holdings increased from about 10.84 billion DOGE to 10.88 billion DOGE, a net increase of about 40 million DOGE, worth approximately $6 million USD. More importantly, they did not take profits at the start of the rebound but chose to continue holding and slightly increase their holdings. This steady buying in the middle is precisely the key to shifting the market from "intraday trading" to "sustainable trend."
Warning Signal: Divergence Between Whales and Short Positions
However, a successful reversal does not mean the risks are eliminated. On the contrary, when you can clearly see the movement of major forces, it often signals an impending bigger storm.
Hidden Short Divergence: Momentum Weakening
From mid-October to early January, DOGE's price gradually declined, but the peak of RSI kept rising, forming a "hidden bearish divergence." Unlike bullish divergence, this pattern usually appears during price increases, indicating that prices are still being pushed higher, but upward momentum is weakening, and selling pressure is gradually absorbing new demand. In other words, buyers are still exerting pressure, but efficiency is decreasing.
Giant Whales: The $1.3 Billion Selling Pressure Disappearing Quietly
Apart from technical indicators, the strongest on-chain force—the "giant whales" holding over one billion DOGE—began actively reducing their holdings from January 1. Their holdings dropped from about 726.8 billion DOGE to 718.0 billion DOGE, a net reduction of about 88 billion DOGE, equivalent to a $1.3 billion supply entering the market.
This does not mean the market will change immediately, but when hidden short divergence and giant whale reduction appear simultaneously, the most common outcome is—diminished rebound momentum rather than accelerated trend. The current risk phase can be more accurately described as "whale-led risk": mid-sized whales holding, giant whales selling, retail investors cheering "bull market quick return."
$0.151: The Key Price Zone for Market Fate
Currently, technical indicators have become secondary; the price itself is the most important signal. DOGE repeatedly failed near $0.151, which has become a critical dividing line for short-term bull-bear trends.
Scenario 1: Above $0.151 is Unstable
The probability of correction increases significantly, with the first target at $0.137( about an 8% correction). If this support is broken, the structure will further reveal the $0.115 level. This trend will fully confirm the hidden short divergence and largely align with the continued reduction of giant whale holdings.
Scenario 2: Actual Breakthrough and Daily Close Above $0.151
The impact of bearish divergence will weaken, selling pressure will be absorbed by the market, and the price may rise to $0.173.
The Harsh Reality of 2025: MEME Coins Are No Longer Retailer’s Game
The DOGE story reflects the harsh reality of the 2025 crypto market: MEME coin pricing control has shifted entirely from retail investors to whales and hedge funds. After institutional positioning in Bitcoin and Ethereum, funds are moving toward lower-liquidity, more manipulable altcoins.
According to the latest Chainalysis data, the proportion of large DOGE transactions over $100,000 increased from 12% in 2023 to 38% in 2025, while small transactions under $1,000 decreased from 45% to 19%. Whales are no longer satisfied with "chart tricks" but are beginning to use precise on-chain behavioral analysis to predict and prevent retail moves.
Ironically, as DOGE struggles around $0.15, the entire MEME coin sector is experiencing "structural divergence." PEPE surged 68% in a week to new highs, BONK is trying to replicate the 5x legend, but DOGE's whales have already started to withdraw. This indicates that capital is shifting from "old MEME" to "new narrative MEME," and DOGE, as a relic of the previous cycle, may lose its "cultural unique value."
Summary: Not Just Liquidity Among Whales
This time, DOGE has achieved a true reversal, with mid-sized whale holdings continuing to be the main support for the market. But at the same time, upward momentum is slowing, and giant whales have taken profits, with the price under pressure around $0.15.
The next trend will not depend on Elon Musk’s tweets or retail FOMO but on whether it can hold above $0.151.
As a retail investor, you should be more alert to whether "your buy orders are being taken by mid-sized whales transferring holdings" rather than "DOGE will fall." When on-chain data shows $1.3 billion in sell-offs, the slogan "bull market quick return" sounds particularly unsettling.
Discussion Topic
What do you think has changed in whale behavior regarding DOGE?
A. The increasing mid-sized whales are a decisive signal of reversal; $0.15 must be broken
B. The retreat of giant whales is a warning sign; correction is imminent
C. DOGE is gradually becoming outdated; funds are shifting to PEPE/BONK and other new MEME coins
✍️ Leave your choice + reason in the comments
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Disclaimer: This article is based solely on on-chain data and technical analysis and does not constitute investment advice. MEME coins are highly volatile; please manage risks carefully and make prudent decisions. (

Is what I saw today real? Is Dogecoin really about to take off? 📈 I’m looking forward to it 😁