#数字资产动态追踪 $BTC $ETH $BNB Entering 2026, the market is betting on the Federal Reserve's next move—and the disagreements are quite significant.

From the latest Fed dot plot, the official tone appears quite conservative. Most committee members expect **1 rate cut** next year, but it will depend on the data. In other words, they are waiting.

However, traders and investment banks are clearly more ambitious. The pricing of interest rate futures, along with predictions from major players like Goldman Sachs, generally point to **at least 2 rate cuts**—some even lock in the timing for March and June. It sounds like the Fed and the market are playing a game of "Guess if I will cut or not."

The reality is, the upcoming game rules will still be dictated by **inflation and employment data**. As long as these two indicators do not show a clear shift, the Fed's hands will be tied. Another variable not to be ignored is the possible leadership change in the Fed in 2026—new leaders often bring fresh ideas to policy, especially in the second half of the year.

For holders and traders, the key is not to be fooled by official statements but to pay more attention to the real pricing in the futures market. That’s where the smart money is speaking.