Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, industry veteran analysts have recently made a bold prediction: if the historical cycle pattern is broken, BTC could surge to the $250,000 mark in 2026. This judgment sounds aggressive, but the underlying logical chain is actually worth pondering.

Let's start with the most basic historical rule — Bitcoin has never experienced declines in two consecutive years. This may sound simple, but it is the cornerstone supporting the entire cycle argument. If 2025 indeed faces pressure, then based on historical inertia, 2026 is likely to see a rebound.

More importantly, macroeconomic changes are at play. The US policy environment is trending towards peace, institutional funds continue to flow into crypto assets, and the expectation of declining global interest rates is gradually taking shape — these three factors combined create a relatively friendly environment for risk assets. Against this backdrop, rising from the current price to $250,000, an increase of nearly 170%, is not an impossible feat in a genuine bull market cycle.

Of course, whether the cycle can truly be broken and whether macro expectations will be fulfilled remain uncertain. But this joint analysis from three dimensions — historical patterns, capital flow, and macroeconomic outlook — at least provides us with a reference perspective.