There has been a lot of discussion about XRP recently. Macro analyst Jim Willi proposed an interesting perspective: the XRP price may have been "scripted" in advance by major institutions. It’s no longer just an ordinary crypto asset but a tool for capital flow among institutions.

As an observer who has been active in the crypto market for ten years, I have to say this view hits some real points, but it doesn’t fully reveal XRP’s true awkward side — it’s more like a chip held by big players rather than a tool for financial revolution.

**Key Issue 1: How outrageous is the concentration?**

Willie’s mention of "pre-set" actually refers to Ripple’s absolute control over XRP. The data is clear: XRP’s total circulation is 100 billion tokens, with Ripple holding nearly 43 billion, accounting for 43%. Add in holdings by the founding team and early investors, and the top ten addresses control over 40% of the supply. This level of concentration is no different from a dealer holding a clear card — price movements depend entirely on when Ripple decides to buy or sell.

At the end of last year, XRP surged above $3, seemingly due to improved regulatory expectations following Trump’s election. But a closer look at on-chain data and exchange activity shows that Ripple executives released messages, the company bought back tokens to support the price, and even on Korea’s Upbit exchange, selling 40 million XRP in a day could significantly pressure the price. Is this still free market trading? Clearly, it’s precise institutional manipulation.

**Key Issue 2: The real dilemma of application scenarios**

The most dramatic part is — although XRP was initially designed as a cross-border payment tool, in reality, banks rarely use it. Traditional institutions like Alipay and Swift are not eager to reform, and XRP’s presence in practical applications is fading. Instead, it’s being traded more aggressively as a speculative tool on exchanges.

This is the current situation: concentrated control + thin application base + frequent price fluctuations. XRP is more like a game of fund shifting among institutions rather than a disruptor. After observing for so long, my biggest feeling is: don’t be blinded by the narrative.