Prediction markets are becoming increasingly popular now, and it's crucial to understand the key points thoroughly. Vitalik is right; this is indeed a remedy for social media — compared to exaggerated claims on Weibo, real money is at stake in prediction markets, so no one dares to boast recklessly.

Taking Bitcoin as an example, the probability of "reaching $100,000 again by the end of the year" on Polymarket is only 10%, which clearly illustrates the point. If it were as certain as some people on Twitter claim, why does the market assign such a low probability? At this point, you should think calmly instead of being driven by panic.

For us who are into crypto, these prediction markets are a new opportunity — the key is to understand the participation logic. Some prediction markets will airdrop to interactive users, especially early participants. The current tactic is: follow the latest activities on platforms like Polymarket, participate in a few predictions at low cost, and observe the real probabilities given by the market. This way, you can potentially earn airdrops and also learn how the market actually views a certain event.

In simple terms, don’t just look at Weibo hype; check out prediction markets to see where the real chips are — that’s the beginning of rational interaction.