#预测市场 Seeing Polymarket's move, flashes of a few old projects from 2017 come to mind. Back then, many teams were relying on third-party infrastructure to create a false prosperity; once the underlying issues surfaced, they quickly unraveled. When Polygon experienced a downtime on December 18, catching Polymarket off guard, it marked a watershed event—truly visionary projects have already been contemplating "I can't rely on someone else's chain forever."

From a historical perspective, prediction markets have gone through multiple cycles. During the last bull run, Augur was in the spotlight, but ultimately failed to capitalize due to technical choices and infrastructure limitations. Now, Polymarket is taking proactive steps, planning to launch its own L2, and even aiming to shed third-party providers like GoldSky and Alchemy. What does this indicate? It shows they genuinely want to make this work, rather than just riding on existing chains to make money.

The 5-minute market innovation is worth noting. From daily to minute-level data, liquidity demands and risk management complexities are sharply increasing. This reflects the evolution of prediction markets from niche games to real trading tools—getting closer and closer to traditional financial operational logic.

But don’t get too optimistic. Building an L2 in-house means operating with heavy assets, long cycles, high costs, and significant technical risks. How many projects have ultimately failed due to overexpansion? How much patience can the market afford during this transition? These are pressing questions. Time will tell.