2026-01-05 05:27:43

On January 3rd, news of the US taking military action against Venezuela caused a direct surge in risk aversion sentiment, and gold broke through $4,400 with almost no suspense.

From a medium to long-term perspective, this gold rally still has logical support. The Federal Reserve will definitely continue to cut interest rates in 2026, with institutions generally predicting 2-4 rate cut windows. Plus, the global trend of central banks continuously buying gold and the gradual decline in dollar usage are all factors supporting a stable gold bull market.

However, short-term risks should also be noted. During the week of January 8-14, the Bloomberg Commodity Index will be adjusted, and gold may be passively sold off by about 3%. At the end of the year, everyone wants to realize gains, and margin requirements will also be increased, which will definitely amplify market volatility. When the US non-farm payroll data is released on January 9, special caution is needed, as this data often changes market expectations for rate cuts and can trigger intense fluctuations.

In terms of trading strategy, never chase the high. The best approach is to wait for a pullback in gold before entering the market. Remember these key price levels: if it stabilizes around $4,320-$4,250, that is the most cost-effective entry point; the resistance in the $4,450-$4,550 range will be very strong, and short-term breakthroughs will be difficult. If you decide to buy long positions, be sure to set stop-losses below $4,320-$4,250, prioritizing risk control.

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quiet_lurker

· 01-06 12:14

Really, chasing highs is just asking for death... The 4320 level is indeed a good entry point, just depends on whether you have the patience to wait.

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fren.eth

· 01-05 12:15

Gold breaking 4400 and thinking of chasing? Wake up, brother. The real buying opportunity is when it retraces to 4250. Don't let emotions drive you. --- Relying on a surge for safe-haven buying is an old trick... but be cautious of the non-farm payrolls on January 9th. That data is most likely to disrupt expectations. --- The central bank has been accumulating gold, and the dollar is weakening. The logic is solid, but don't forget that short-term volatility can wipe out your stop-loss. --- Instead of chasing highs, wait for a pullback to act. If it stabilizes at 4320-4250, then enter. That’s what a professional does. --- The Bloomberg index adjustment week might cause a passive sell-off. That will be the best ambush point, so don’t panic. --- Long-term bullishness is fine, but these two weeks are really risky. Once the non-farm payroll data is released, there could be a big wave of volatility. Will margin requirements increase? Let's observe this weekend. --- Those chasing highs will regret in 2 weeks. Gold has already risen so high this wave. Patience and waiting for a pullback is the way to go. --- The Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates in 2026. The fundamentals are solid, but the short-term market for quick gains is intense. Set your stop-loss properly and don’t be overconfident.

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AirdropHarvester

· 01-05 05:52

Oh no, here comes the risk-off market again. Gold is actually quite interesting this time. But I think, instead of chasing 4400, it's better to wait for a pullback to 4320 before jumping in. That way, it's more secure. Alright, alright, with the rate cut cycle in place and the central bank aggressively stockpiling, there's no problem with a long-term bullish outlook. But in the short term, be really careful. On January 9th, the non-farm payrolls report, I will be watching it closely. Once the data is out, it could easily shake people's confidence. I saw that resistance level at 4450 early on. Want to break through? It's not that easy. I bet it won't surge in the short term. Don't chase the high, friends. I'm serious. The range between 4250-4320 is the right zone to get in. Risk control comes first. Losing money is really not worth it. I've been using the pullback strategy for a long time, much better than chasing highs.

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DefiEngineerJack

· 01-05 05:44

lol technically speaking, the venezuela geopolitical noise is just vol expansion masking the real macro picture here... fed's gotta keep cutting through '26, that's empirically baked in. but ngl the nonfarm data on the 9th gonna be chaos, risk management > everything else fr fr

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MEVSandwich

· 01-05 05:41

Hmm... You really need to be careful on Non-Farm Payrolls day. Last time, we got hit hard by this data.

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HodlTheDoor

· 01-05 05:39

Another "hedging" reason to hype up gold, basically just trying to buy the dip... However, that 4320 level must be maintained, or else you'll really have to cut losses.

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DYORMaster

· 01-05 05:29

Listen, if 4400 breaks, it breaks, but chasing high now is just giving away money. I'll wait until 4320 to act again.

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