According to reports, former Merrill Securities analyst David Rosenberg recently shared his outlook on the US economic prospects. He believes that next year's economic situation could be more severe than many expect — not only will the labor market cool down, but it is very likely to enter a true recession phase.

The analyst pointed out that the market has not fully realized the seriousness of the problem. The labor market is shrinking rather than just slowing down, which will be a critical turning point. The unemployment rate is expected to quickly surpass 5%, and by the end of the year, it could even reach 6%. Once such a collapse occurs in the labor market, an economic recession will follow.

In this scenario, the Federal Reserve's response will be quite aggressive. Rosenberg predicts that the Fed will be forced to cut interest rates a total of 125 basis points before the end of 2026, ultimately bringing the benchmark rate down to around 2.25%. In other words, five consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each.

What does this macro background mean for risk assets like BTC? The liquidity environment could undergo significant changes.