Fight for Federal Reserve Chair: Waller Surpasses Hasset, How Trump's January Decision Will Reshape Monetary Policy

The decision to nominate the Federal Reserve Chair is about to be announced. According to the latest news, the probabilities of the two leading candidates, Hasset and Wosh, being nominated have tied at 39%, with Wosh rising by 8 percentage points in the past 24 hours and Hasset decreasing by 3 percentage points. Behind this subtle shift in probabilities, the market’s focus and uncertainty about the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve are reflected.

What is happening with market expectations

Based on Polymarket data, support for the two candidates has become evenly matched. Wosh’s upward trend and Hasset’s slight decline indicate that market assessments of the candidates are dynamically adjusting. This kind of change usually reflects the latest political signals, candidate statements, or a reevaluation of their policy stances.

Why this decision is crucial

The choice of Federal Reserve Chair directly determines the monetary policy direction for the coming years. According to relevant information, the market is highly focused on the Fed’s rate cut path—CME data shows an 85.1% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in January, but the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut in March has exceeded 51%. A change in the chair could alter this expected trajectory.

Why the market is paying attention to this

From the perspective of the crypto market, the Fed’s policy direction has far-reaching impacts. Historical data shows that during the last rate cut cycle (which began in 2019), Bitcoin rose from over $3,000 to $69,000 in 2021, an increase of over 23 times. This explains why the crypto community is so sensitive to the Fed Chair selection— the policy inclination of the new chair could determine the future trajectory of risk assets for more than a year.

What to watch next

Trump is expected to announce the final decision within January. The impact of this decision will not only be limited to financial markets but will also influence:

• The pace and magnitude of Fed rate cuts
• Capital flows into risk assets (including cryptocurrencies)
• Market expectations for the economic outlook in 2026
• Corporate financing costs and investment willingness

Summary

The contest for the Fed Chair nomination has entered its final stage, with the probabilities of the two candidates being tied reflecting the market’s genuine disagreement. This decision is not only about the personnel appointment at the Fed but also about the future global monetary policy direction. For investors interested in macroeconomics and crypto markets, the announcement in January will be an important indicator. Before the decision is announced, market speculation and expectation adjustments will continue.