In the past two days, looking at the market trends, Bitcoin and a bunch of Meme coins are all rebounding, but there's a phenomenon that's quite disheartening—the price is rising, but market sentiment hasn't caught up.

According to the latest data from Alternative, the cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index today is exactly 26, yesterday was 25. It looks like it has increased a little, but to be honest, it's still stuck in the "fear" zone and hasn't climbed out. This index system ranges from 0 to 100, with below 50 indicating fear. At 26, it's still quite far from true neutrality.

What's even more interesting is how the index is calculated. It includes six dimensions: volatility(25%), trading volume(25%), social media buzz(15%), market surveys(15%), Bitcoin market cap dominance(10%), and Google search trends(10%). The weight distribution is quite balanced, but this also means that if any one component stalls, the overall index can't rise.

The contradiction in front of us is very clear—why are prices rising while market sentiment remains so cold? There are several possibilities:

**Retail investors are still on the sidelines.** The rebound isn't fierce enough; everyone is still waiting and watching, and genuine FOMO hasn't been triggered. After experiencing several rounds of decline, no one wants to be the last to buy in.

**Institutional funds might still be on the sidelines.** This rebound is mainly a technical correction; the big funds haven't started to deploy seriously yet. When institutions begin to buy in earnestly, the sentiment index will make a qualitative leap.

**Social media buzz data might be inflated.** The 15% weight for this component—are the discussions truly hot, or are zombie accounts flooding the feeds? It's hard to say, but if the buzz is artificially high, it could distort the overall index's authenticity.

**Capital flow remains conservative.** The 10% weight of Bitcoin market cap dominance can reflect market risk appetite. If this percentage is decreasing, it indicates funds are shifting to altcoins—this sounds aggressive, but it could also mean big players are not yet ready to increase positions in mainstream coins.

The more critical question is: can this rebound continue? When price trends and sentiment indicators diverge over the long term, it usually signals a key turning point in the market. Sometimes prices follow sentiment and fall back; other times, sentiment catches up with prices, and the rebound is truly confirmed. The current situation is uncertain—that's where the risk lies.

Honestly, this rebound could be the start of sentiment recovery, or it could be another "trap for false signals." The key depends on the upcoming volume and participation. If in the next few days the sentiment index remains weak, the sustainability of the price rebound will be questionable. Conversely, if the sentiment index quickly moves upward, it would indicate that the bottom is indeed in place.

So, this is a crucial juncture. What do you think about this market? Is it rational pessimism or excessive fear? Before the sentiment index truly returns to neutral or even optimistic levels, we need to be cautious.